As of November 30, 2025, it is too early to definitively judge this prediction.

• No official recession call yet: The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), whose dating is the reference standard for U.S. business cycles, still lists the most recent peak as February 2020 and trough as April 2020, with no later recession yet identified.(nber.org) NBER typically announces peaks/troughs with an 8–22 month lag, so if a new recession began sometime in 2025, that would almost certainly not be announced yet.
• Mixed real‑time indicators: BEA data show real GDP fell slightly in Q1 2025 (about –0.6% annualized after revision) but then rebounded strongly, with Q2 2025 revised up to +3.8% annualized.(bea.gov) Forecasts going into late 2025 still point to positive growth (e.g., ~4% annualized Q3 nowcasts), and weekly jobless claims remain relatively low, arguing against an obvious, already-recognized recession.(reuters.com) However, the Sahm rule recession indicator was already triggered in 2024, and unemployment has drifted up into the mid‑4% range, signaling elevated recession risk.(congress.gov) New research (e.g., Michaillat’s classifier) even puts the probability that the U.S. was already in recession by May 2025 at about 70%, but that is an estimate, not a consensus declaration.(arxiv.org)
• Forecasters and markets see high risk, but no consensus that a recession has begun: Through 2025, mainstream forecasters (IMF, NABE surveys, Mark Zandi’s baseline, etc.) generally describe the U.S. as not yet in recession but at high risk, often highlighting that only parts of the economy or some states appear to be in recession.(reuters.com) Real‑money prediction markets (Kalshi, Polymarket) put 2025‑recession odds as high as ~60–70% in April 2025 but later reduced them to roughly 20–40% as trade tensions partially eased; they have not resolved any contract as a 2025 recession because that depends on a future NBER call.(wsj.com)
• Calendar year 2025 is not over and ex‑post dating is unknown: A recession could still begin in December 2025, and even if the turning point has already occurred earlier in the year, we won’t know how NBER (and thus most forecasters and betting markets) will ultimately date it until well into 2026 or later.

Because (1) the year has not fully elapsed, (2) NBER has not yet dated any new recession, and (3) there is genuine disagreement in high‑quality academic and market‑based indicators about whether a recession is already underway, we cannot presently say with confidence whether the U.S. did or did not "enter a recession" during 2025 under the definitions commonly used by forecasters and betting markets. Hence the prediction is best scored as inconclusive (too early) rather than clearly right or wrong.