Here's your polymarket. Will tariffs generate greater than $250 billion. It's uh peaked at like 30%. It's come back down to five. Most people are betting. So this could be a case of free money if people want to go get it on Polymarket, because it has a pretty good chance of hitting that.View on YouTube
Jason’s prediction is tied to the Polymarket contract “Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?”, which resolves Yes if U.S. customs duties in fiscal year 2025 exceed $250 billion in the Treasury’s Financial Report of the United States Government for FY 2025, with a resolution deadline of February 28, 2026; otherwise it resolves No.【4view0】 As of November 30, 2025, this Polymarket market is still live and trading at about a 4% implied probability with no final outcome posted.【4view0】 The Treasury’s site currently provides projections and prior-year reports but not yet an FY 2025 Financial Report, so the official customs‑duties total for FY 2025 is not available.【5search0】 Interim reporting indicates tariff revenues have surged in 2025 (roughly $195 billion by October 2025), which is still below $250 billion and covers only part of the fiscal period referenced by the market.【0news16】 Because the reference contract has not resolved and the determining data are not yet published, Jason’s prediction cannot currently be evaluated and remains too early to call.【4view0】【3search0】