ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
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Chamath @ 00:35:41Inconclusive
venturetech
The battery factory project in Michigan that Chamath is describing will (1) break ground in July 2026 and (2) begin commercial operations by July 2028.
So in all of these cases, I think that a you have this uptick in revenue because of tariffs on the short term. And b, the important thing is to redo this pie chart in probably a year. Like, for example, our groundbreaking in Michigan will be in July of next year for that factory. It'll be online two years after that.View on YouTube
Explanation

As of the evaluation date (November 30, 2025), both milestones in Chamath’s prediction are still in the future:

  • Groundbreaking is predicted for July 2026, which has not yet occurred.
  • Commercial operations are predicted by July 2028, which is also in the future.

The referenced All-In Podcast episode was released on September 7, 2025, so his timeline ("groundbreaking in Michigan will be in July of next year... it'll be online two years after that") clearly targets mid‑2026 and mid‑2028.

Public information about Chamath’s battery-related investments (e.g., his backing of cathode maker Mitra Chem) does not provide verifiable detail on a specific Michigan battery factory schedule, nor evidence that such a project has been definitively canceled or made impossible before July 2026.(rova.nz)

Because the deadlines have not arrived yet and there is no conclusive evidence that the project cannot meet them, the accuracy of this prediction cannot yet be determined.