The conditional part of the prediction has already been satisfied: Donald Trump began his second term as U.S. president on January 20, 2025, and Jerome Powell remains Federal Reserve Chair with a term running through May 2026. (en.wikipedia.org)

Under that Trump–Powell overlap, the Fed has cut rates. In September 2025, the FOMC lowered the federal funds target range from 4.25–4.50% to 4.00–4.25%, its first cut of the year. (pcbb.com) On October 29–30, 2025, the FOMC again reduced the target range by 25 bps to 3.75–4.00%, as confirmed by the Fed’s own minutes and statement. (federalreserve.gov) Both decisions occurred while Trump was president and Powell was chair.

Because the prediction was absolute (“He will not cut for Trump”) and a single counterexample is enough to falsify it, the existence of these rate cuts under Trump means the prediction is wrong.