Trump Takes On the Fed, US-Intel Deal, Why Bankruptcies Are Up, OpenAI's Longevity Breakthrough

The prediction is that Founder University will expand to Asia such that the program operates in three cities starting in calendar year 2026. The current date is 2025-11-30, so 2026 has not begun yet. Because the prediction concerns operations during 2026, it is too early to determine whether it comes true, regardless of any current plans or announcements. Therefore the outcome is inconclusive (too early to tell).

Evidence strongly supports the core of Jason’s prediction— that Founder University, in partnership with Sanabil (not “Sonabel”), would run a program based in Riyadh starting in November 2025 — but there is no clear public evidence about him personally spending a full week there, so the prediction as normalized can’t be fully verified.

What’s confirmed

• Sanabil and Jason Calacanis’s firm LAUNCH announced “Sanabil Founder University by LAUNCH,” a 12‑week pre‑accelerator based in Riyadh for early‑stage founders. (zawya.com)
• Multiple independent outlets and the official press release state that the first cohort begins in November 2025 in Riyadh and that it is a Sanabil–LAUNCH/Founder University collaboration. (zawya.com)
• The official program site for Sanabil Founder University by LAUNCH lists “Cohort 1 – November 2025” and describes it as a 12‑week pre‑accelerator for MENA-based startups, with select in‑person sessions in Riyadh. (mena.launch.co)
• The published schedule shows in‑person “Day 1–3” programming in Riyadh from November 3–5, 2025, including talks and founder activities, with Jason Calacanis listed as a speaker on Day 1 (“Startups 101”) and Day 3 (founder pitches), indicating he is physically present on at least those days. (mena.launch.co)
• In his own announcement, Calacanis wrote that “On November 3rd, I’ll be on the ground in Riyadh to launch Sanabil Founder University by LAUNCH,” and invites founders to spend 12 weeks in the Kingdom, reinforcing that the program is indeed centered in Riyadh during that period. (linkedin.com)

What remains uncertain

• The normalized prediction adds the specific detail that this would be a “week-long” program in Riyadh and that Jason (“B”) would be “physically spending a week there.”
• Public materials consistently describe the initiative as a 12‑week program with a mix of virtual and in‑person components, not as a strictly “week‑long” program. (mena.launch.co)
• While the schedule and Calacanis’s own announcement confirm he is in Riyadh to launch the program and present on at least November 3 and 5, no reliable source specifies that he stayed for a full continuous week, nor do they frame the entire program as only a week long.

Because the partnership, location, and November 2025 timing are clearly correct, but the exact duration of his stay (a full week on the ground) is not verifiable from public sources, the overall prediction — as normalized with the “week‑long / week there” detail — is best classified as ambiguous rather than fully right or wrong.

Multiple independent sources confirm that the 2025 All-In Summit was held in person in Los Angeles over September 7–9, 2025, at the Shrine Auditorium and Expo Hall.

• The All-In website’s group sales page advertises “Los Angeles, CA | September 7-9, 2025” for All-In Summit 2025, clearly describing a live, in-person conference format with networking, keynotes, and on-site experiences. (allin.com)
• An event listing for “The All-In Summit 2025” notes the event “September 7 @ 8:00 am - September 9 @ 6:00 pm PDT” at the Shrine Auditorium and Expo Hall, Los Angeles, CA, and marks it as an in-person, already-completed event. (eventbrowse.com)
• A summarized history of the All-In Summit describes the 2025 summit as held in Los Angeles from September 7 to 9, following prior annual summits in 2022, 2023, and 2024—making 2025 the fourth annual summit. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Another listing for “All-In Summit 2025” likewise specifies Sept 7–9, 2025 at the Shrine Auditorium and Expo Hall in Los Angeles. (app.qwoted.com)

The prediction claimed that the fourth annual All-In Summit would be an in-person event in Los Angeles on September 8–9, 2025. In reality, the summit did occur in person in Los Angeles and ran September 7–9, so the dates September 8–9 were indeed core days within the actual event. Since the only discrepancy is that the event also included September 7 (which does not contradict the claim that it would be held on the 8th and 9th), the prediction is best judged as right rather than wrong on a technicality.

Multiple independent post‑meeting summaries report that at its September 16–17, 2025 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve reduced the federal funds target range by 25 basis points, from 4.25%–4.50% to 4.00%–4.25%. TD Wealth notes that “The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bps), lowering the target range to 4.00%-4.25%.” (td.com) A banking industry update likewise states that “the FOMC changed its benchmark rate range from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25%.” (pcbb.com) Macroeconomic analyses from FXStreet and FocusEconomics both describe the same September decision as a 25 bps rate cut to a 4.00%–4.25% range. (fxstreet.com) Another institutional note confirms that “the Federal Reserve cut the fed funds target range by 25 bps… to 4.00%–4.25%.” (capitaladvisors.com) Since Jason predicted on August 29, 2025 that “there’s going to be a rate cut in September,” and the Fed did in fact cut rates at the September 2025 FOMC meeting, the prediction is right.

Multiple sources reporting on the September 17, 2025 FOMC decision show that the Federal Reserve reduced the federal funds target range from 4.25%–4.50% to 4.00%–4.25%, a cut of 25 basis points. (cbsnews.com) This was explicitly described as the first rate cut since December 2024 and is tied to the September 16–17, 2025 FOMC meeting noted in the Fed’s own calendar and subsequent minutes. (federalreserve.gov) That outcome matches Jason’s prediction that “The Federal Reserve will reduce its policy rate by 25 basis points at the September 2025 FOMC meeting.”

This prediction concerns a future event: the Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund actually becoming insolvent (unable to fully pay scheduled benefits) sometime between 2030 and 2033.

As of November 30, 2025, that time window has not started yet, so the trust fund has not become insolvent and cannot yet be evaluated against the 2030–2033 prediction window.

Current Social Security Trustees’ reports project that the OASI Trust Fund will be depleted around 2033, after which incoming payroll taxes would still cover roughly three-quarters of scheduled benefits, but full benefits could not be paid without legislative changes. This projection matches the timing mentioned in the prediction, but it remains only a projection until the 2030–2033 period actually occurs and we see what happens in reality.

Because the prediction is about what will occur between 2030 and 2033, and we are still in 2025, there is not yet enough real-world evidence to say whether the prediction is right or wrong.

Therefore, the correct status is: it is too early to tell whether this prediction will come true.

Available data show that U.S. corporate bankruptcies have been rising and are elevated in 2024–2025, but Chamath’s prediction is explicitly about what happens “over the next several years (post‑2025)” relative to the 2010–2024 period, so the forecast horizon has not elapsed.

Context:

• From 2010–2024, annual U.S. corporate bankruptcies (using S&P’s large‑company definition) generally ranged from the high 300s to high 600s, with 694 filings in 2024—already the highest level since 2010’s 828. (visualcapitalist.com)
• In 2025, filings have continued to climb. S&P data show 188 bankruptcies in Q1 2025 (the highest first quarter since 2010) and 371 filings by mid‑year, the most in the first half of any year since 2010. (cmrfinancialadvisors.com) By October 2025, there were 655 filings, putting 2025 on track to surpass 2024 and reach a 15‑year high. (reuters.com)

These figures are consistent with the direction of his claim (“more, not less bankruptcies”), but they only cover the first year of the post‑podcast period. Because his prediction concerns a multi‑year trend beyond 2025, and we do not yet have data for those subsequent years (2026, 2027, etc.), it is too early to say whether bankruptcies will remain higher than in the 2010–2024 period over the full forecast horizon. Therefore, the correct status as of November 30, 2025 is inconclusive (too early to judge).

The prediction states that “a first FDA-approved human drug whose primary mechanism of action is Yamanaka-factor-based cellular rejuvenation … will be approved in the United States roughly 7–12 years from 2025, i.e., between 2032 and 2037.” That approval window (2032–2037) has not started yet as of the current date (November 30, 2025). Therefore, it is too early to know whether such a drug will in fact be approved in that time frame. No amount of current web or scientific literature search can confirm or falsify an approval that is explicitly predicted for future years. Hence, the correct status is inconclusive (too early).

As of November 30, 2025, it’s too early to judge this prediction, because the forecast window is 3–4 years from 2025, i.e., roughly until late 2028–late 2029.

On the factual side:

• Yamanaka-factor / partial cellular reprogramming is still largely in preclinical and early clinical stages; longevity commentators note that only the first induced-pluripotent-stem-cell (iPSC)–derived therapies have just reached tightly regulated clinical trials and that progress toward rejuvenation therapies is slow. (fightaging.org)
• There is active medical tourism for advanced stem-cell and iPSC-related treatments, especially in places like Japan, marketed for anti‑aging and regenerative purposes, but these are mostly mesenchymal stem cell therapies and targeted iPSC applications (retina, Parkinson’s, etc.), not open Yamanaka-factor-style rejuvenation protein/gene therapies sold to general consumers. (placidway.com)

So, by late 2025, the specific scenario Chamath described — medical tourists flying to a lightly regulated jurisdiction (e.g., Costa Rica or similar) to receive Yamanaka-factor-style rejuvenation protein therapies outside U.S. clinical‑trial channels — has not clearly materialized yet, but the deadline for his forecast is still several years away. We therefore can’t say the prediction is right or wrong at this point, only that it remains open.

The conditional part of the prediction has already been satisfied: Donald Trump began his second term as U.S. president on January 20, 2025, and Jerome Powell remains Federal Reserve Chair with a term running through May 2026. (en.wikipedia.org)

Under that Trump–Powell overlap, the Fed has cut rates. In September 2025, the FOMC lowered the federal funds target range from 4.25–4.50% to 4.00–4.25%, its first cut of the year. (pcbb.com) On October 29–30, 2025, the FOMC again reduced the target range by 25 bps to 3.75–4.00%, as confirmed by the Fed’s own minutes and statement. (federalreserve.gov) Both decisions occurred while Trump was president and Powell was chair.

Because the prediction was absolute (“He will not cut for Trump”) and a single counterexample is enough to falsify it, the existence of these rate cuts under Trump means the prediction is wrong.