Available data show that U.S. corporate bankruptcies have been rising and are elevated in 2024–2025, but Chamath’s prediction is explicitly about what happens “over the next several years (post‑2025)” relative to the 2010–2024 period, so the forecast horizon has not elapsed.

Context:

• From 2010–2024, annual U.S. corporate bankruptcies (using S&P’s large‑company definition) generally ranged from the high 300s to high 600s, with 694 filings in 2024—already the highest level since 2010’s 828. (visualcapitalist.com)
• In 2025, filings have continued to climb. S&P data show 188 bankruptcies in Q1 2025 (the highest first quarter since 2010) and 371 filings by mid‑year, the most in the first half of any year since 2010. (cmrfinancialadvisors.com) By October 2025, there were 655 filings, putting 2025 on track to surpass 2024 and reach a 15‑year high. (reuters.com)

These figures are consistent with the direction of his claim (“more, not less bankruptcies”), but they only cover the first year of the post‑podcast period. Because his prediction concerns a multi‑year trend beyond 2025, and we do not yet have data for those subsequent years (2026, 2027, etc.), it is too early to say whether bankruptcies will remain higher than in the 2010–2024 period over the full forecast horizon. Therefore, the correct status as of November 30, 2025 is inconclusive (too early to judge).