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Last updated Nov 29, 2025
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Jason @ 01:10:15Inconclusive
economy
If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by roughly 50 basis points sometime in September–November 2025, U.S. CPI inflation will subsequently rise back to a level with a "3-handle" (between 3.0% and 3.9% year-over-year) within the following months.
if we cut rates in September, October, November time period and maybe 50 bips comes off, this inflation is definitely going to go up. People have more money, more investment goes around. We'll probably see a three handle again.View on YouTube
Explanation

What the prediction required
Normalized: If the Fed cuts rates by about 50 bps sometime in Sept–Nov 2025, then U.S. CPI inflation will subsequently rise back to 3.0–3.9% year‑over‑year (a “3‑handle”) within the following months.

What actually happened so far

  1. Fed policy in Sept–Nov 2025
    The FOMC cut the target federal funds range by 25 bps on September 17, 2025 (to 4.00–4.25%) and again by 25 bps on October 29, 2025 (to 3.75–4.00%). That’s a cumulative 50‑basis‑point cut within the Sept–Nov window, so the condition (“if the Fed cuts ~50 bps in Sept–Nov”) has been met. (en.wikipedia.org)

  2. Inflation behavior around that time

    • CPI year‑over‑year was 2.7% in June and July 2025. (bls.gov)
    • It then rose to 2.9% in August 2025. (bls.gov)
    • The September 2025 CPI report (released October 24) shows the all‑items CPI up 3.0% year‑over‑year, i.e., already a “3‑handle.” (bls.gov)

    So by September, inflation had risen back to 3.0%.

  3. Data gap after the full 50 bps of cuts
    The last 25‑bp cut that completes the “~50 bps” path occurred on October 29, 2025. The months “subsequent” to that are November 2025 onward. However, because of the October–November 2025 government shutdown, the October CPI was not collected and will not be released, and the November CPI report (which will partly impute October) has not yet been published as of November 30, 2025. (reuters.com)
    That means we do not yet have any CPI data for a month that is clearly after the full 50‑bp cut path is in place.

Why the prediction is labeled ‘inconclusive’

  • The antecedent (“Fed cuts ~50 bps in Sept–Nov”) is satisfied: 25 bps in September + 25 bps in October. (en.wikipedia.org)
  • We do see CPI at 3.0% in September, which matches the “three‑handle” level Jason talked about. But that 3.0% reading:
    • Largely reflects price movements before the October 29 cut, and
    • Occurs when only half of the eventual 50‑bp Sept–Nov easing (the Sept 17 cut) had taken place.
  • The normalized version of the prediction you provided, however, specifies that CPI will “subsequently rise back” to 3–3.9% after the roughly 50‑bp easing in the Sept–Nov window. To test that strictly, we must look at months after the full 50‑bp path is in effect (i.e., November 2025 and beyond). Because of the data shutdown and normal release lag, those CPI figures are not yet available as of November 30, 2025. (reuters.com)

Given this, we can’t yet say—on the basis of actually released post‑cut data—whether “after the ~50‑bp cuts” inflation is at 3–3.9%. His general intuition that inflation would get back to a 3‑handle is already borne out by the September print, but the specific conditional, as normalized (tied to the full Sept–Nov 50‑bp easing), cannot yet be definitively judged.

Hence the verdict: "inconclusive" (too early to fully evaluate), with the caveat that the available data so far are directionally consistent with his claim.