The prediction specified a window of ~18 months from August 2025, i.e. until around February 2027, for “a Gen‑4 reactor [in the U.S.] deployed or started production.” As of November 30, 2025, that deadline has not yet arrived, so we cannot know whether it will ultimately be met.

Current evidence shows several U.S. Generation IV / advanced reactor projects are under development or early construction, but not yet deployed or producing power:

• Project Pele microreactor (DoD/BWXT) – DoD and DOE report that ground was broken at Idaho National Laboratory in 2024 and that the transportable high‑temperature gas reactor is being built by BWXT, with assembly starting in 2025 and potential operation at INL as early as 2026; it is expected to be the first Generation IV reactor to generate electricity in the U.S. (defense.gov)
• Kairos Power Hermes 1 & 2 (fluoride‑salt‑cooled reactors) – The NRC has issued construction permits for Hermes 1 (non‑power demonstration) and, more recently, for Hermes 2 units that Kairos describes as the first electricity‑producing Gen IV reactors permitted for construction in the U.S., but these units are not yet operating. (powermag.com)
• TerraPower Natrium (sodium‑cooled fast reactor, Wyoming) – Non‑nuclear site work started in 2024, with nuclear construction expected after an NRC construction permit targeted for 2026 and operation around 2030; as of late 2025 it has not begun nuclear island construction or operation. (powermag.com)

These timelines suggest it is plausible that at least one Gen IV project (e.g., Project Pele or a Hermes/Natrium unit) could be under construction or even operating by early 2027, but that outcome lies in the future relative to the current date. Because the 18‑month window has not elapsed and we lack information from beyond November 2025, we cannot yet determine whether Friedberg’s prediction will ultimately be correct.

Therefore, the appropriate classification as of now is “inconclusive (too early).”