The prediction’s horizon is “over the next several years … through roughly 2030,” so as of November 2025 it is too early to judge definitively.

Early evidence is mixed:

• Large-company restructurings and journalistic analyses show meaningful cuts to middle management layers and rising spans of control, with firms explicitly citing efficiency drives and AI tools as contributors to a “Great Flattening.” (wsj.com)
• Surveys and forecasts (e.g., Gartner) anticipate that AI will significantly reduce middle-management roles in a portion of organizations by the mid‑2020s, reinforcing the idea that managers are highly exposed to AI-enabled coordination and decision tools. (shrm.org)

However, aggregate labor data do not yet show a broad collapse in management jobs relative to other white‑collar roles. U.S. employment in management occupations is roughly flat-to-slightly up through 2024–2025 and is projected by BLS to grow about 7% from 2023–2033, while projected job losses from AI and automation are clearest in clerical/office support and some sales/customer-service roles rather than management per se. (bls.gov)

Because (1) the main evaluation date of ~2030 has not yet arrived, and (2) existing data show some AI-driven thinning of middle management but not a clear, systemwide pattern that managers are the first white-collar category to be materially reduced relative to individual contributors, the prediction cannot yet be labeled right or wrong.