Chamath’s prediction about CDS was made on the All‑In “2025 Predictions” episode, where he said he would be long credit default swaps as insurance and added: “I hope that this trade loses money, but if it hits, it will be the best performing asset of 2025.”(podscripts.co) In the April 5, 2025 episode you cited, he revisits this and notes that the trade has already “hit” in the sense that CDS spreads blew out, implying that for every $1 million premium on $1 billion of risk, the mark‑to‑market profit would be about $7 million over roughly three months.(24vids.com) However, public reporting on 2025 credit markets describes widening spreads and increased use of CDS hedges around tariffs and recession fears, not a single clear, headline “major corporate default event” that triggered large CDS payout settlements in the way his conditional scenario implied.(reuters.com) Moreover, as of November 30, 2025, the calendar year is not over, so we cannot yet definitively rank any strategy as the best‑performing asset of 2025, especially versus volatile assets like cryptocurrencies or small‑cap equities whose full‑year returns are still in flux.(exchange-rates.org) Finally, Chamath has never publicly specified the exact CDS instruments (reference entities, maturities, or size), which means even after year‑end it may not be possible from public data alone to verify whether that particular position outperformed every other major investable asset or trade on a percentage basis.(podscripts.co) For these reasons—both because 2025 has not yet concluded and because the necessary position details aren’t disclosed—the prediction cannot currently be judged right or wrong.