The prediction is about the entire current Trump term beginning in 2025: that the administration will keep its new tariff regime in substantial form and will not stage a broad, sudden reversal or “grand capitulation,” even if markets are volatile.

What has actually happened so far:

1. Large new tariff regime was implemented and remains the core policy.

   • On April 2, 2025 (“Liberation Day”), Trump announced sweeping tariffs via Executive Order 14257, including a 10% baseline tariff on most imports plus substantial country‑specific surcharges (up to roughly 50%), alongside a 25% auto/auto‑parts tariff and other measures. (cnbc.com)
   • These Liberation Day tariffs are part of a broader second‑term program of high tariffs, including a separate 25% tariff on goods from countries that import Venezuelan oil. (en.wikipedia.org)

2. There have been tactical pauses and adjustments, but not a full rollback.

   • On April 9, 2025, amid market turmoil and stock market losses, Trump announced a partial, 90‑day pause on many of the newly imposed “reciprocal” country‑specific rates, temporarily resetting them to the 10% baseline while negotiations proceeded with dozens of countries. China’s rate was actually increased to 125%, and key sectoral tariffs (e.g., on autos, steel, aluminum) stayed in place. (investopedia.com)
   • The administration later extended the modification/pause on some reciprocal rates but also began sending letters and imposing high tariffs (often 30–50%) on specific countries effective August 1, 2025, indicating that the high‑tariff framework was being maintained and refined, not abandoned. (forbes.com)

3. Legal and political pushback has not (yet) dismantled the tariff regime.

   • Federal courts have issued rulings that Trump overstepped his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and that some or all Liberation Day tariffs are illegal, but those judgments are stayed pending appeal, so the tariffs remain in effect for now. (en.wikipedia.org)
   • Congress is considering the "Trade Review Act of 2025" to reassert legislative control over tariffs, but it has not been enacted; it therefore hasn’t forced a rollback yet. (en.wikipedia.org)

4. As of late November 2025, a high‑tariff regime is still in force.

   • Reports in November 2025 describe significant ongoing tariff revenue from the Liberation Day package and related measures, with the administration proposing to use those revenues for “tariff dividend” checks, and with only limited product‑specific cuts (on roughly 200 items) rather than a general unwinding. (nypost.com)
   • Major partners such as India are still facing high U.S. tariffs (up to 50%) and are negotiating trade deals under that pressure rather than after a broad U.S. retreat. (reuters.com)

Given this, two key points for scoring the prediction:

• Has there already been a “grand capitulation”? The 90‑day partial pause and subsequent tweaks are significant softening steps, but they kept a 10% baseline in place, preserved or increased some marquee tariffs (e.g., China, autos, steel), and were framed as temporary negotiating tactics. There has been no comprehensive repeal of the Liberation Day framework or a wholesale return to pre‑2025 tariff levels.
• Is the prediction fully testable yet? No. The prediction explicitly covers the entire Trump term beginning in 2025, which would run through January 2029. As of November 30, 2025, we are less than one year into that term. A later major policy reversal—driven by markets, courts, Congress, or a political deal—could still occur.

Because the term is far from over and no decisive “grand capitulation” has yet occurred, the correct status is “inconclusive” (too early to tell) rather than clearly right or wrong.