Friedberg @ 01:39:20Inconclusive
economyclimate
By approximately 2040, China will have added new electricity production capacity whose total nameplate capacity exceeds twice the current (2025) total electricity production capacity of the United States.
In the next 15 years, they're going to add more electricity production capacity than the United States Times two has today.View on YouTube
Explanation
The prediction’s time horizon has not elapsed yet.
- The podcast was released on 5 April 2025, and the predictor said: “In the next 15 years…”, i.e., by around 2040.
- Today is 30 November 2025, so only ~8 months have passed since the prediction was made. There is no way to know yet whether by 2040 China’s added new electricity production capacity (in nameplate terms) will exceed 2× the 2025 total U.S. electricity production capacity.
- While current data and long‑term projections exist for China’s power-capacity build‑out and U.S. electricity production, those are forecasts, not realized facts, and can change substantially before 2040.
Because the deadline (2040) is still far in the future, the prediction cannot yet be judged as right or wrong. Therefore the correct classification is “inconclusive (too early)”.