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Last updated Nov 29, 2025
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Friedberg @ 01:30:27Inconclusive
science
Given current (February 2025) trajectory estimates, the asteroid discussed, which will cross Earth’s orbit in 2032, has approximately a 1.5% probability of impacting Earth in 2032, and conditional on impact, roughly a 15% probability of causing human loss of life (with an energy release up to ~20 megatons if its diameter is near 300 feet).
And so right now, the probability is estimated at 1.5% that it will hit the Earth. And based on the size of this asteroid, there's this range. It goes up to 320ft in diameter, as small as 80ft in diameter, which actually can have a pretty big effect on how big of an energy release there would be if it actually, you know, hit the Earth. So even on the high end, if it was call it 300ft, it would be the equivalent of call it a 20 megaton bomb… So it's 1.5% chance of hitting the Earth and then call it a 15% chance if it hits the Earth, causing loss of life.View on YouTube
Explanation

The asteroid in question is 2024 YR4, an Apollo‑type near‑Earth object whose orbit crosses Earth’s and which has a possible close approach on 22 December 2032.

• Around 19–20 February 2025, NASA’s Center for Near‑Earth Object Studies (via Sentry) and ESA indeed reported that 2024 YR4 had an impact probability of about 1.5% for 2032, with an estimated size roughly 40–90 m (≈130–300 ft) across. Multiple outlets summarized this as a 1.5% chance of impact after a peak of about 3.1%, matching Friedberg’s “~1.5%” description tied explicitly to the then‑current trajectory estimates. (snopes.com)

• Within days, new observations rapidly drove the modeled impact probability down: Sky at Night and other sources note that the chance fell from 3.1% to 1.5% on 19 Feb, to 0.28% on 20 Feb, and then to about 0.005% by 23 Feb 2025. (skyatnightmagazine.com) Subsequently, NASA and ESA further reduced the risk to roughly 0.001–0.004%, effectively zero, and the object was downgraded to Torino Scale 0. (apnews.com)

• Energy‑yield estimates from NASA‑linked analyses and expert commentary put a 40–90 m stony asteroid like 2024 YR4 in the rough range of ~7–10 megatons of TNT if it actually hit Earth—enough for severe city‑scale damage but not a global catastrophe. (en.wikipedia.org) Friedberg’s “up to ~20 megatons if it’s near 300 feet” is a back‑of‑the‑envelope extrapolation from the upper end of the size range and cannot be directly validated or falsified without an actual impact.

• Crucially, the core of his statement is a probabilistic forecast about whether the asteroid will hit Earth in 2032 and, if so, the chance of human casualties. As of 30 November 2025, 2032 is still in the future, and 2024 YR4 has obviously not impacted Earth yet. The updated orbital solutions now imply an extremely small impact probability, but whether the true physical outcome in 2032 is “no impact” (which would mean the real ex ante probability was effectively near zero) cannot be definitively judged until after that date.

Because the underlying event (any 2032 impact and associated loss of life) has not yet occurred, the correctness of Friedberg’s forecasted 1.5% impact chance and ~15% conditional fatality chance cannot be empirically evaluated. His descriptive claim about the then‑current NASA estimate (~1.5%) was accurate, but the predictive content about the actual 2032 outcome remains untestable at this time. Hence the status is inconclusive (too early to tell).