The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private

The prediction is about "the coming years" (a multi‑year horizon) and claims that:

1. U.S. labor productivity will continue to increase.
2. The rate of productivity growth will be further boosted by AI and related software tools.

As of November 30, 2025, less than one year has passed since the prediction (February 21, 2025). That is far too short to evaluate a multi‑year trend or to reliably attribute any observed productivity changes specifically to AI and new software tools, as opposed to business cycles, capital investment, or measurement issues. Productivity trends are typically assessed over several years.

Preliminary data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics show that nonfarm business labor productivity has indeed risen over the last decade and has shown some recent quarters of strong growth, but economists are still debating the permanence of this uptick and the extent to which AI is the driver. These early signals are not enough to declare that a durable, AI‑driven acceleration in productivity growth has been established.

Because the timeframe the predictor specified (“coming years”) has not yet elapsed and any causal impact of AI on trend productivity growth cannot yet be robustly established, the correct classification is “inconclusive (too early)”.

The prediction explicitly concerns a “post‑AI era” over the coming decades, in which AI allegedly makes routine things like:

• Deep mining toward the Earth’s interior ("500 miles down") for rare earth minerals
• Large‑scale space projects such as colonizing the Moon

As of November 30, 2025, none of this has occurred:

• Current mining operations are limited to relatively shallow depths in the Earth’s crust; there is no technology or active industrial practice approaching hundreds of miles deep extraction for rare earths or anything else.
• Human activity on the Moon is limited to robotic missions and planning for future crewed missions (e.g., NASA’s Artemis program and various commercial lunar initiatives). There is no permanent lunar colony or routine colonization activity in operation yet.
• AI has advanced rapidly and is being used in engineering, logistics, and scientific research, but it has not yet demonstrably enabled the kind of massive, routine, planetary‑scale and space‑colonization projects described.

Because the prediction’s implied time horizon is “the post‑AI era” over the coming decades, and we are only in 2025, it is too early to determine whether AI will in fact unlock the level of routine deep‑Earth mining and Moon colonization described. The relevant future period has not arrived, and the prediction is not framed to be testable this soon.

Therefore, the status of the prediction is inconclusive (too early to tell) given the current date.

The asteroid in question is 2024 YR4, an Apollo‑type near‑Earth object whose orbit crosses Earth’s and which has a possible close approach on 22 December 2032.

• Around 19–20 February 2025, NASA’s Center for Near‑Earth Object Studies (via Sentry) and ESA indeed reported that 2024 YR4 had an impact probability of about 1.5% for 2032, with an estimated size roughly 40–90 m (≈130–300 ft) across. Multiple outlets summarized this as a 1.5% chance of impact after a peak of about 3.1%, matching Friedberg’s “~1.5%” description tied explicitly to the then‑current trajectory estimates. (snopes.com)

• Within days, new observations rapidly drove the modeled impact probability down: Sky at Night and other sources note that the chance fell from 3.1% to 1.5% on 19 Feb, to 0.28% on 20 Feb, and then to about 0.005% by 23 Feb 2025. (skyatnightmagazine.com) Subsequently, NASA and ESA further reduced the risk to roughly 0.001–0.004%, effectively zero, and the object was downgraded to Torino Scale 0. (apnews.com)

• Energy‑yield estimates from NASA‑linked analyses and expert commentary put a 40–90 m stony asteroid like 2024 YR4 in the rough range of ~7–10 megatons of TNT if it actually hit Earth—enough for severe city‑scale damage but not a global catastrophe. (en.wikipedia.org) Friedberg’s “up to ~20 megatons if it’s near 300 feet” is a back‑of‑the‑envelope extrapolation from the upper end of the size range and cannot be directly validated or falsified without an actual impact.

• Crucially, the core of his statement is a probabilistic forecast about whether the asteroid will hit Earth in 2032 and, if so, the chance of human casualties. As of 30 November 2025, 2032 is still in the future, and 2024 YR4 has obviously not impacted Earth yet. The updated orbital solutions now imply an extremely small impact probability, but whether the true physical outcome in 2032 is “no impact” (which would mean the real ex ante probability was effectively near zero) cannot be definitively judged until after that date.

Because the underlying event (any 2032 impact and associated loss of life) has not yet occurred, the correctness of Friedberg’s forecasted 1.5% impact chance and ~15% conditional fatality chance cannot be empirically evaluated. His descriptive claim about the then‑current NASA estimate (~1.5%) was accurate, but the predictive content about the actual 2032 outcome remains untestable at this time. Hence the status is inconclusive (too early to tell).

NASA’s own Planetary Defense blog update on Feb. 20, 2025 reports that observations overnight on Feb. 19–20 reduced asteroid 2024 YR4’s chance of impacting Earth on Dec. 22, 2032 to 0.28% (about 1 in 360), i.e., slightly under one‑third of one percent. Independent coverage of the same NASA update likewise cites a new impact probability of 0.28–0.3%, often rounded to 0.3%, and describes it as “about 0.3%.” This is consistent with Friedberg’s wording that NASA had “dropped the probability … to about a one third of 1%,” so his characterization of the updated February 2025 NASA assessment is essentially accurate, even though NASA later reduced the probability much further (to ~0.004%) in subsequent days.

As of late 2025, Stripe has not completed an initial public offering and remains a privately held company; multiple recent overviews of the company and its anticipated IPO explicitly note that there is still no IPO date or SEC filing and that Stripe is not yet publicly traded. (fool.com)

Jason’s prediction was that “Stripe’s going public in 2050”, interpreted as a specific future IPO year. Because:

• 2050 is still in the future relative to today (November 30, 2025), and
• Stripe has not yet gone public in any other year (which would clearly falsify the 2050-specific prediction),

we can’t yet determine whether Stripe will in fact IPO in 2050 or at some other time (or never). Thus, the accuracy of the prediction cannot currently be evaluated and is best labeled inconclusive (too early to tell).

Evidence shows that the core elements of Jason’s prediction did occur:

• The All-In team hosted “All-In Live: Austin” on Thursday, March 13 at the Rollins Studio Theatre at The Long Center in Austin, TX, with doors at 5pm and show at 6pm, followed by an “All-In SXSW Reception” at Arena Hall with open bar, food trucks, poker, music, and networking—i.e., a casual party with food and drinks for attendees. (allin.com) SXSW 2025 ran March 7–15 in Austin, so March 13 is within the festival window. (timeout.com)
• The venue (Rollins Studio Theatre) seats roughly 80–229 people depending on configuration, aligning with Jason’s description of an intimate event with “a couple hundred seats.” (nowplayingaustin.com)
• The live show was released as the episode “All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson.” The episode description and transcript confirm Jason Calacanis and David Friedberg hosting live from Austin, with segments explicitly focused on the creator economy, media evolution, YouTube’s influence, content strategies, and business models for creatives—substantially matching “the future of media and building businesses in this new media ecosystem.” (allin.onpodcastai.com) The transcript opens with: “Friedberg and Jason are live from Austin!” and notes they “wanted to do something around this sort of new media creator economy,” which closely mirrors Jason’s on-air framing in the earlier episode. (audioscrape.com)
• A tweet (archived via TwiCopy) from the official This Week in Startups account recaps “The All-In Podcast LIVE @ SXSW”, explicitly naming @jason, Chamath Palihapitiya, and david friedberg on stage with guests Bryan Johnson, Colin & Samir, and Chris Williamson, and mentions a “room full of fans,” corroborating that the live SXSW-affiliated show with Jason and Friedberg did in fact occur and drew a sizable audience. (twicopy.com)

We do not have direct documentation confirming the $30 application fee via allin.com/events, but the main factual components Jason predicted—being in Austin for SXSW on March 13, Jason and Friedberg co-hosting live interviews focused on media/business, and an intimate event with food and drinks for a few hundred people—are all borne out by the available sources. Therefore, the prediction is best classified as right.

Jason makes the prediction near the end of the Feb. 21, 2025 episode “The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private,” saying about Friedberg’s upcoming Celebrity Jeopardy! appearance: “We are going to do a recap of every single question.” (happyscribe.com)

Friedberg’s Celebrity Jeopardy! episode then airs the following week (ABC’s Celebrity Jeopardy! for Wednesday, Feb. 26, 2025, discussed in Jeopardy forums and coverage of that game with Ana Navarro and David Friedberg). (reddit.com)

After it airs, the All-In hosts do return to the topic in the Mar. 1, 2025 episode “Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy,” which has a segment explicitly titled “Friedberg recaps his experience on Celebrity Jeopardy!” from 4:40–14:22. (podscripts.co) However, the transcript of that segment shows they:

• Play and react to a few highlight clues (e.g., the African geography Daily Double about Mount Kilimanjaro and the Hoosiers sports-movie Daily Double),
• Talk about his nerves, buzzer timing strategy, preparation, and the charity payout,
• Then move on to the next topic around the 14:22 mark.

They do not systematically walk through each clue from the game or attempt a question‑by‑question recap; only a handful of specific questions are mentioned before the conversation shifts to other subjects. (podscripts.co)

Search across later episode descriptions and transcript indices for the All-In feed shows no separate episode or extended segment where they later go back and cover every question from Friedberg’s Jeopardy game—this Mar. 1 recap is the only substantial Jeopardy-focused segment. (everand.com)

Since the follow-up content is a general highlight/experience recap and not a comprehensive, question-by-question rundown of the entire episode, Jason’s prediction that they would “do a recap of every single question” did not come true.