Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Jason @ 00:34:13Inconclusive
economyai
U.S. labor productivity, which has risen roughly 20% over the past decade, will continue to increase in the coming years, with the rate of productivity growth further boosted by the adoption of AI and related software tools.
And that's going to keep ramping up with AI and all these amazing tools that are coming out.View on YouTube
Explanation

The prediction is about "the coming years" (a multi‑year horizon) and claims that:

  1. U.S. labor productivity will continue to increase.
  2. The rate of productivity growth will be further boosted by AI and related software tools.

As of November 30, 2025, less than one year has passed since the prediction (February 21, 2025). That is far too short to evaluate a multi‑year trend or to reliably attribute any observed productivity changes specifically to AI and new software tools, as opposed to business cycles, capital investment, or measurement issues. Productivity trends are typically assessed over several years.

Preliminary data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics show that nonfarm business labor productivity has indeed risen over the last decade and has shown some recent quarters of strong growth, but economists are still debating the permanence of this uptick and the extent to which AI is the driver. These early signals are not enough to declare that a durable, AI‑driven acceleration in productivity growth has been established.

Because the timeframe the predictor specified (“coming years”) has not yet elapsed and any causal impact of AI on trend productivity growth cannot yet be robustly established, the correct classification is “inconclusive (too early)”.