Trump’s second term began on Jan 20, 2025, so the first six months ran roughly through July 20, 2025. (en.wikipedia.org) During that period, US–China relations were dominated by an escalating trade war and the “Liberation Day” tariff package, which raised U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports up to 145%, prompting Chinese retaliation and rare‑earth export restrictions. (en.wikipedia.org)

On May 12, 2025, the two sides reached an initial Geneva accord that temporarily reduced tariffs (from 145% to 30% on Chinese goods and from 125% to 10% on U.S. goods) and created a 90‑day truce to allow further negotiations. This was explicitly framed by officials and media as an initial or temporary deal, not a comprehensive settlement; steep tariffs, export controls, and broader strategic disputes remained. (whitehouse.gov) Analysts at the time specifically argued that a broad US–China “grand bargain” was not on the horizon and that only more modest, issue‑specific arrangements were realistic. (scmp.com)

Through late July 2025, coverage continued to describe the situation as a limited truce with ongoing talks and anticipated only narrow deals (for example around fentanyl), not a sweeping grand deal that reset the overall relationship. (en.wikipedia.org) A more substantial multi‑year U.S.–China trade and economic agreement was only announced in early November 2025—over nine months into Trump’s term, outside the six‑month window specified in the prediction. (ustr.gov)

Because no widely recognized, broad “grand deal” that clearly eased overall tensions and created a durable, mutual economic reset was reached within the first six months of the Trump administration, the prediction did not come true as stated.