Seems like they're going to strike a deal. Chuck Schumer today is calling for a delay in the ban. I'm sure by the time this episode airs, something will have been worked out to create some space for them to get a deal done. But I think they want to get a deal done and keep TikTok active in the US.View on YouTube
Public reporting shows that the federal TikTok sell‑or‑ban law (the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act) did take effect on January 19, 2025, after the Supreme Court upheld it on January 17, 2025, rather than being delayed or mooted by a deal. (en.wikipedia.org) TikTok’s Supreme Court challenge in TikTok, Inc. v. Garland failed, and the company itself stated it would have to shut down without non‑enforcement assurances.
In response, TikTok shut down its U.S. service on January 18, 2025, hours before the deadline, and Apple and Google removed TikTok and other ByteDance apps from their U.S. app stores in anticipation of the law taking effect. (theguardian.com) According to the post‑case summary, TikTok service began to be restored on January 19 after President‑elect Trump signaled he would extend the deadline, but as of January 24, 2025, neither Apple nor Google had restored TikTok to their app stores. (en.wikipedia.org)
Friedberg’s normalized prediction had two key parts:
- A deal or formal delay around the January 19 deadline so TikTok would not actually be banned.
- TikTok remaining active in U.S. app stores when the episode aired (within a few days of Jan 18, 2025).
In reality, there was no timely formal deal or legal delay before the January 19 deadline; the ban provisions were allowed to take effect. TikTok was removed from U.S. app stores on or before the deadline and was still absent several days later, even after partial service restoration. (en.wikipedia.org) Therefore, both the “no ban” and “still in app stores” conditions of the prediction were not met, so the prediction is wrong.