Evidence since the 2024 election shows that while top Republicans have de‑emphasized a formal national abortion ban, they have actively pursued significant federal abortion restrictions, contradicting the prediction that they would “know not to touch this” and leave the issue primarily to the states.

On the “national ban” side, the 2024 Republican National Committee platform—crafted with Trump’s backing—dropped its longstanding call for a federal abortion ban and instead framed abortion as an issue for the states, a notable shift after four decades of federal-ban language.​ (axios.com) Trump and his running mate JD Vance repeatedly said during and after the 2024 campaign that abortion policy should be left to the states, distancing the ticket from a one‑size‑fits‑all national ban.​ (politifact.com) There has also been no new, leadership-driven 15‑week national ban enacted in the 119th Congress, even though some Republicans and the Republican Study Committee continue to signal interest in that kind of bill.​ (ncregister.com) This partially aligns with the prediction’s claim about avoiding a national ban.

However, GOP leaders have very much “touched” abortion at the federal level through major nationwide restrictions, especially via funding and insurance rules:

• In January 2025, President Trump signed Executive Order 14182, “Enforcing the Hyde Amendment,” which ended federal funding for elective abortions, revoked Biden-era orders expanding access to abortion-related care, and directed federal agencies to implement stricter anti-abortion funding policies nationwide.​ (en.wikipedia.org)
• The large GOP “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” budget/tax package that passed the House in May 2025 includes a provision to stop federal payments to Affordable Care Act plans that cover abortions except in limited cases (rape, incest, life of the mother), a sweeping national restriction on abortion coverage tied to federal subsidies.​ (en.wikipedia.org)
• Ongoing negotiations over extending ACA premium subsidies in late 2025 have been nearly derailed because congressional Republicans are demanding tighter abortion restrictions on all subsidized insurance plans, going beyond current Hyde rules; Democrats and reporters describe these abortion demands as the main sticking point in the deal.​ (washingtonpost.com)
• House Republicans also reintroduced measures like the Born-Alive Abortion Survivors Protection Act, a federal criminal law governing care in the context of abortions, backed by well over 100 GOP cosponsors and party leadership.​ (en.wikipedia.org)

Because national Republican leaders have, post‑2024, made federal abortion policy a live issue—pursuing broad, nationwide restrictions via executive action and major legislation, and using abortion rules as leverage in core budget and health-care negotiations—the claim that the issue is “over” and that Republicans would largely avoid federal abortion restrictions has not held up. The absence of a new enacted national gestational ban does not offset the substantial federal restrictions they have actively sought and, in some cases, implemented, so the prediction is best judged wrong overall.