Trump did win in 2024 and began a second term on January 20, 2025, so the context for Chamath’s prediction is in place.

So far, there have been some notable, administration-led transparency moves:

• Assassination records declassification: Trump signed Executive Order 14176 on January 23, 2025, ordering declassification of JFK, RFK, and MLK assassination files. Tens of thousands of pages were released by the National Archives in March–July 2025, described as a significant disclosure of long‑withheld intelligence and law‑enforcement records.
• Epstein Files Transparency Act: In November 2025, Trump signed a bipartisan law requiring DOJ to make all unclassified Jeffrey Epstein–related records public in a searchable, downloadable form within 30 days and to give Congress an unredacted list of officials and politically exposed persons named in those files. DOJ is now in court seeking to unseal previously protected grand‑jury materials under that mandate.

Those steps clearly move in a transparency direction on highly sensitive subjects and involve large document dumps of internal government records. That is partly in the spirit of what Chamath described.

However, there are important caveats:

• The Epstein law was driven mainly by Congress, over initial resistance from Trump and his team, who lobbied Republicans to block it before ultimately acquiescing and signing once overwhelming majorities forced the issue. That weakens the claim that it reflects a Trump‑led push.
• Trump did sign EO 14149, “Restoring Freedom of Speech and Ending Federal Censorship,” which orders an investigation of past government “censorship” activities, but so far there is no evidence of a broad, Twitter‑Files‑style public release of internal emails or chats arising from that order. Searches for any such “censorship files” or similar initiative turn up nothing beyond the EO itself and commentary on it.
• At the same time, parts of the administration are moving against transparency: the Pentagon has imposed unprecedented restrictions requiring reporters not to publish even unclassified information without prior approval, a new White House‑linked “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) was deliberately structured to dodge FOIA until a judge ordered it to release records, and the Defense Department has been deleting DEI‑related historical content from its public sites under Trump’s DEI‑rollback order. These trends run counter to a general “radical push to transparency.”

Crucially for Chamath’s specific image of “a version of the Twitter files for the government,” there is, as of November 30, 2025, no clearly documented, administration‑orchestrated mass release of contemporary internal government communications (emails, chats, etc.) analogous to the original Twitter Files project. The large releases we do see are mostly historic archival records (JFK/RFK/MLK, and soon Epstein) rather than a systematic, contemporaneous exposé of present‑day government operations.

Since Trump’s term runs through January 2029, there is still ample time for such a Twitter‑Files‑style disclosure effort to occur, or for a broader, more consistent transparency agenda to emerge. Based on available evidence up to November 30, 2025, the prediction is neither clearly fulfilled nor clearly falsified: we see partial alignment (notable document‑dump transparency moves) but also strong counter‑evidence (secrecy and control in other domains, and no clear Twitter‑Files‑equivalent yet).

Given that the key elements could still materialize later in the term, the fairest classification at this point is “inconclusive (too early)” rather than “right” or “wrong.”