Available post‑Dobbs data show that states with near‑total abortion bans have experienced measurable net out‑migration that economists directly attribute to those bans. An NBER study summarized by Econofact and CBS finds that, in the year after implementation, the 13 total‑ban states lost about 4.3 people per 10,000 residents specifically because of the bans, totaling roughly 128,700 additional net out‑migrants, with the effect growing to about 36,000 residents per quarter and projected to reach about a 1% population loss over five years if sustained. (econofact.org) These effects are strongest for single‑person households, indicating that younger adults are disproportionately the ones leaving, which aligns with coverage noting tens of thousands of young, largely single people moving out of ban states. (them.us) That satisfies the “noticeable out‑migration … attributable in part to those bans” portion of the prediction.

There is also evidence that these bans are hurting states’ ability to attract and retain workers. Survey research from the University of Houston shows most people—especially liberals and moderates—are reluctant to move to states with abortion bans; for example, 82.3% of liberals and 41.6% of moderates reported aversion to relocating to such states. (uh.edu) A 2025 Forbes analysis reports that employers in ban states face growing talent shortages: states with bans are losing an estimated 36,000 residents per quarter, and among people with postgraduate education, 13% reported moving because of abortion restrictions and 14% said they’d applied for an out‑of‑state job or knew someone who had, with more than 60% of 18–25‑year‑olds saying they would probably or definitely not live in a state that bans abortion. (forbes.com) Additional coverage of the same NBER work emphasizes that these outflows are concentrated among younger, potentially more educated workers, raising concerns about economic impacts and labor supply in ban states. (them.us)

While the absolute population losses so far are modest relative to total state populations and rely on statistical attribution, the evidence by late 2025 clearly supports Jason’s qualitative claim: abortion‑ban states are seeing detectable out‑migration linked to the bans, and these laws are making it harder for those states to attract and retain workers.