Are Smrs operating in China, Russia and India today. And there's about 65 being built at this moment. Right. So and that's outside the US. So that's why the US is is is kind of observing and trying to catch up and adopt these technologies that are being used by call it economic competitors and economic partners around the world. It's important for economic prosperity in the US, for us to have a degree of competitiveness and electricity prices. If China races towards $0.05 per kilowatt hour for electricity, and we're sitting here at $0.20 a kilowatt hour for electricity, what's that going to do to our economic competitiveness?View on YouTube
The prediction is conditional and medium‑term: it says that if China can get large‑scale electricity down to about $0.05/kWh while U.S. power stays around $0.20/kWh, the U.S. will lose economic competitiveness relative to China.
As of late 2025, that core price-gap condition has not been met at the economy‑wide level:
- Recent cross‑country comparisons put average industrial electricity prices around $0.10/kWh in China and $0.08/kWh in the U.S. in 2025, i.e., the U.S. is not at $0.20 and is actually slightly cheaper for industrial users on average. (rhnuttall.co.uk)
- Detailed Chinese tariff tables show typical industrial non–time-of-use prices in major provinces in the 0.65–0.81 RMB/kWh range (roughly $0.09–$0.11/kWh at current exchange rates), again far above $0.05/kWh for standard industrial loads. (china-briefing.com)
- U.S. data for 2024–2025 show national retail averages roughly in the $0.13–$0.19/kWh band for commercial/residential users, while industrial averages are closer to $0.08–$0.09/kWh, not $0.20/kWh. (uschamber.com)
There are narrow cases in China where subsidized rates for AI data centers approach the posited level: several inland provinces offer a 50% discount on industrial tariffs, bringing power for qualifying AI data centers to about 0.4 RMB/kWh (~$0.056/kWh). (tomshardware.com) But this is:
- Targeted to a specific sector and region, not the whole economy; and
- Not paired with a persistent, economy‑wide U.S. price of ~$0.20/kWh for comparable large‑scale users (U.S. wholesale prices are closer to $0.04/kWh, and large industrial customers typically negotiate single‑digit‑cent tariffs). (reuters.com)
Because the hypothetical price configuration (China ≈$0.05, U.S. ≈$0.20 for large‑scale users) has not actually occurred across the two economies, we cannot empirically test the second part of the prediction (that the U.S. would then lose economic competitiveness). Moreover, Friedberg’s original wording was more of a counterfactual warning than a time‑stamped forecast that this configuration would definitely happen by 2025.
Given that:
- The relevant condition has not clearly materialized; and
- The time horizon he referred to (“over the coming years”) extends beyond 2025,
it’s too early, and the scenario too unmet, to label the prediction as right or wrong. Hence the status is best classified as "inconclusive".