Trump over the past few weeks seems to have had a surge, owing to the fact that Kamala's interviews generally don't go well... I don't think the interview is going to help her.View on YouTube
Kamala Harris’s interview with Bret Baier on Fox News aired on October 16, 2024, where she tried to distance herself from President Biden and sparred with Baier over immigration and other issues, but coverage treated it as a tough, contentious exchange rather than a breakthrough performance.(cnbc.com)
On October 15, the day before the interview, 538’s national polling average had Harris leading Trump by about 2.4 points (48.5%–46.1%), with RealClearPolitics showing a 1.7‑point Harris lead; in 538’s swing‑state averages she held razor‑thin leads in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada, while Trump led narrowly in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona.(newsweek.com) That’s the baseline immediately before the Baier interview.
By October 29—roughly two weeks after the interview—Newsweek reported that Trump’s national numbers had improved relative to the prior week: 538 now had Harris ahead by only about 1.4 points (48.1%–46.6%), down from a 1.7‑point lead just a week earlier, and RealClearPolitics had Trump ahead nationally by 0.5 points (48.1%–47.6%).(newsweek.com) In the swing states, 538 showed Harris and Trump essentially tied in Wisconsin, with Trump slightly ahead in Pennsylvania and Nevada and leading more clearly in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona; RealClearPolitics showed Trump ahead in all seven battleground states.(newsweek.com) Relative to the pre‑interview picture, this is, if anything, movement in Trump’s direction, not evidence that Harris closed the gap.
The final election results confirm that Harris did not close the gap in any meaningful sense: Trump won the Electoral College 312–226 and the national popular vote 49.8%–48.3%.(en.wikipedia.org) Polling aggregates on election eve still had Harris only modestly ahead nationally (by less than a point on average) and Trump favored or narrowly ahead in key swing states, a pattern consistent with the eventual outcome.(en.wikipedia.org)
Across the weeks after the Baier interview and leading up to November 5, there is no sign of a durable improvement in Harris’s standing versus Trump; her national edge shrank and her swing‑state position either stagnated or deteriorated slightly. That aligns with Sacks’s prediction that the Fox interview would not improve her standing or help her close the gap with Trump in the weeks before the election.