The prediction is explicitly about a future condition: when AI and broader technological innovation in the U.S. become genuinely constrained (“rate limited”) by energy. Chamath further frames this in a multi‑decade horizon (“by the time that you are rate limited by energy”). As of November 30, 2025, two key facts make this impossible to judge:

1. AI is not yet clearly “rate limited” by energy in the sense described. There are growing concerns about AI’s energy usage and data centers straining grids, but these have not yet become the dominant hard cap on AI progress; the main constraints remain capital, talent, hardware, and regulation. This means the condition “by the time you are rate limited by energy” has not decisively arrived.
2. The prediction’s timeframe extends well beyond 2025. It concerns what the energy landscape will look like when/if that energy constraint finally bites, which Chamath suggests could be in the next couple of decades. That point has not yet been reached, so we cannot test whether there is indeed a “plethora of solutions” versus a single bottleneck technology.

Because the triggering scenario (AI being truly rate‑limited by energy) has not clearly occurred yet and the relevant time window has not elapsed, the prediction cannot be evaluated at this time.