The prediction states that around 24 months after the September 6, 2024 episode—i.e., roughly by September 2026—Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya will be arrested in connection with celebrating Chamath’s 50th birthday.

As of today’s date (November 30, 2025), that 24‑month window has not yet elapsed. Thus, even if there is currently no public record of either Jason Calacanis or Chamath Palihapitiya being arrested, we cannot yet determine whether the prediction will ultimately be right or wrong.

Recent biographical and news coverage of both Calacanis and Palihapitiya shows no report of arrests or criminal charges against them up to 2025, but that only confirms the prediction has not yet come true—it does not settle its eventual outcome. (en.wikipedia.org)

Because the prediction’s target date lies in the future relative to now, the correct status is “inconclusive (too early)” rather than right or wrong.