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Fri, 06 Sep 2024 18:20:00 +0000

Around 24 months after this September 6, 2024 episode (i.e., roughly by September 2026), Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya will get arrested in connection with celebrating Chamath’s 50th birthday.

I've already called dibs on chairing your 50th, so we will, uh, be certainly getting arrested in 24 months.View on YouTube

Explanation

The prediction states that around 24 months after the September 6, 2024 episode—i.e., roughly by September 2026—Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya will be arrested in connection with celebrating Chamath’s 50th birthday.

As of today’s date (November 30, 2025), that 24‑month window has not yet elapsed. Thus, even if there is currently no public record of either Jason Calacanis or Chamath Palihapitiya being arrested, we cannot yet determine whether the prediction will ultimately be right or wrong.

Recent biographical and news coverage of both Calacanis and Palihapitiya shows no report of arrests or criminal charges against them up to 2025, but that only confirms the prediction has not yet come true—it does not settle its eventual outcome. (en.wikipedia.org)

Because the prediction’s target date lies in the future relative to now, the correct status is “inconclusive (too early)” rather than right or wrong.

Friedberg @ 00:05:46Right

tech

Following the 2024 All-In Summit (held shortly after this September 6, 2024 episode), recorded summit content will be published to YouTube over the subsequent days and weeks rather than all at once during the event.

And then, as we did in the last two years, material will roll out in the days and weeks that follow.View on YouTube

Explanation

Evidence about All‑In Summit 2024 shows that the on‑stage interviews were released to YouTube and podcast feeds over an extended period after (and at the tail end of) the September 8–10, 2024 event, not all at once.

The 2024 All‑In Summit itself ran September 8–10, 2024 at Royce Hall in Los Angeles. (en.wikipedia.org)
The All‑In Podcast YouTube video “Elon Musk | All‑In Summit 2024” is recorded as published on September 10, 2024, while the summit was concluding. (glasp.co)
Additional “All‑In Summit 2024” sessions then appeared on later dates: a Marc Benioff summit episode released September 15, 2024; a John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs summit episode (with the corresponding YouTube video noted as published on September 16, 2024); and a Thomas Laffont | All‑In Summit 2024 episode whose YouTube summary shows a September 27, 2024 date, with the podcast version dated September 26, 2024. (allin.onpodcastai.com)
The rollout continued into October 2024, e.g., the Juan Carlos Izpisua Belmonte / Altos Labs summit talk promoted with an October 1, 2024 publication date. (rumble.com)
Listener discussions on Reddit in mid‑ to late‑September 2024 explicitly mention that summit sessions were being posted on YouTube and that not all had yet appeared on audio platforms, implying an ongoing staggered release. (reddit.com)

Taken together, these dates show summit content was indeed rolled out over successive days and weeks following the event, matching Friedberg’s prediction that, as in prior years, material from the 2024 All‑In Summit would be published gradually rather than all at once.

Sacks @ 01:30:48Ambiguous

politicseconomy

If Kamala Harris wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election, her administration’s economic policies during her term will substantially continue the same policy direction as the Biden–Harris/Elizabeth Warren-style economic program of 2021–2024, rather than representing a significant ideological shift toward the center or toward more pro-business, lower-tax policies.

But you're a fool and kidding yourself if you think you're going to get something really different after the election, you're going to get a continuation of the Biden, Harris, Elizabeth Warren economic program that we've had for the last four years.View on YouTube

Explanation

Kamala Harris did not win the 2024 U.S. presidential election; Donald Trump won with 312 electoral votes to Harris’s 226 and took office as the 47th president on January 20, 2025. (en.wikipedia.org) Because there is no Harris administration in 2025–2029, there is no real‑world record of "her administration’s economic policies" to compare against the 2021–2024 Biden–Harris/Elizabeth Warren–style program, so the conditional prediction (as normalized) cannot be evaluated. It is therefore not that the prediction clearly came true or failed; instead, the relevant scenario never occurred, making the outcome impossible to determine from actual policy data.