Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Chamath @ 01:27:16Inconclusive
governmentmarketseconomy
In the future, a distinct investment class—primarily sovereign wealth funds and similar pooled-capital vehicles—will emerge whose explicit business model is to finance very large U.S. ‘exit tax’ bills for wealthy entrepreneurs (tens of billions of dollars per case) in exchange for those entrepreneurs relocating, along with their companies’ jobs, know‑how, and future capital investment, to the investors’ home countries.
I think what will happen is funds, governments, etc. for the right entrepreneurs with the right assets will help you pay the exit tax so that you can just leave the United States. And that's going to be an investment class that's going to emerge, in my opinion, which is these organizations that will pool capital, sovereign wealth funds specifically.
Explanation

Chamath’s claim is explicitly forward‑looking: that in the future a distinct investment class—primarily sovereign wealth funds and similar pooled‑capital vehicles—will emerge whose business model is to finance very large U.S. exit‑tax bills (tens of billions of dollars) in exchange for entrepreneurs relocating themselves and their companies abroad. The U.S. expatriation/exit tax regime under IRC §877A is real and well‑documented, and there is active advisory, planning, and media coverage around large exit‑tax exposures for wealthy Americans.(en.wikipedia.org) Wealth‑migration and harsh exit‑tax regimes are also clearly a trend globally (e.g., Norway’s tightened exit tax for wealthy residents; France, Spain, Germany and others enforcing or expanding exit taxes).(reuters.com) However, extensive recent coverage of exit taxes, sovereign wealth funds, and high‑net‑worth relocation—along with specialized commentary from firms that market themselves precisely to people facing U.S. exit tax—shows no reported cases of sovereign wealth funds or pooled capital vehicles systematically paying U.S. exit‑tax bills as an investment product, let alone an established "investment class" doing so.(wealthshield.asia) The wealth‑tax and exit‑tax proposals that might create even larger U.S. exit‑tax liabilities (such as Warren‑style wealth‑tax bills with a 40% exit levy) have not been enacted, so the extreme "tens of billions per entrepreneur" scenario that would drive such a market also has not materialized yet.(en.wikipedia.org) Because the prediction is open‑ended in time and describes a structural financial innovation that could plausibly take many years to appear (if at all), and because as of November 30, 2025, the best available evidence is that this specific class of investors has not yet emerged, the status of the prediction is best classified as **“inconclusive (too early)” rather than definitively right or wrong.