Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Chamath @ 01:27:59Inconclusive
economymarkets
Over the coming years, cross‑border capital flows will become increasingly easy and flexible (“more fungible”) than they are in 2024, making it progressively simpler for wealth and investment capital to move between jurisdictions.
capital flows are very fungible in 2024, and they'll only become more fungible over time.
Explanation

Chamath framed this as a multi‑year directional call ("over the coming years…they’ll only become more fungible"), and only about one year has elapsed since August 2024, so the time horizon he specified has not really played out yet. In the interim, evidence on global capital-mobility is mixed: the OECD’s FDI Restrictiveness Index shows a rise in statutory barriers in 2024 for the first time since 2018, and the US and EU have both tightened screening of inbound and outbound investments in sensitive sectors (e.g., the US outbound-investment rule on China effective January 2025 and the EU’s move toward mandatory, broader FDI screening). (oecd.org) At the same time, some countries have removed or eased capital controls (e.g., Argentina lifting most currency and capital controls in 2025, Russia softening controls on new investments, ECB pressure to dismantle "trapped" capital within the euro area), and cross‑border channels like Stock Connect into Hong Kong and broader Chinese cross‑border flows have expanded. (apnews.com) Because both liberalizing and restrictive moves have occurred and the "coming years" window is still unfolding, it’s too early to say definitively whether capital has "only" become more fungible in the way he predicted.