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Last updated Nov 29, 2025
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Friedberg @ 01:10:57Wrong
climatescience
During the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season immediately following this June 7, 2024 episode (i.e., over the next few months of 2024), the Atlantic basin will experience hurricanes that are, in aggregate, larger, stronger, and more frequent than in any previously recorded Atlantic hurricane season.
the National Hurricane Center, a lot of the climatologists are forecasting that over the next couple of months, we could see and should expect to see probabilistically much larger, stronger, bigger, more frequent hurricanes than we've ever seen historically. So we'll see if it plays out.View on YouTube
Explanation

The prediction claimed that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season (the season following the June 7, 2024 episode) would produce hurricanes that were, in aggregate, larger, stronger, and more frequent than in any previously recorded Atlantic season.

What actually happened in 2024:

  • The 2024 Atlantic season had 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of about 161.5. It was extremely active and the third‑costliest season on record, but not record‑breaking in overall activity or intensity metrics. (en.wikipedia.org)

Comparison with previous top seasons:

  • 2005 had 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes, 7 major hurricanes, and ACE ~245.3, with multiple Category 5 storms; it remains one of the most intense and active seasons ever recorded. (en.wikipedia.org)
  • 2020 had 30 named storms (record), 14 hurricanes, 7 major hurricanes, and ACE ~180.3; it is explicitly described as the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record by number of storms. (en.wikipedia.org)

Thus, while 2024 was well above average and very destructive, its storm counts and ACE were lower than those of 2005 and 2020 and did not set all‑time records for frequency or overall energy. It therefore did not produce hurricanes that were, in aggregate, larger/stronger/more frequent than any previously recorded season. The probabilistic forecast he referenced did not “play out” in that strongest possible sense, so the normalized prediction is wrong.