Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Chamath @ 01:17:57Inconclusive
climateeconomy
Between roughly 2024 and 2064, advancements and deployment driven primarily by economic incentives (e.g., cheaper clean energy and related technologies), rather than ideological climate activism, will significantly mitigate global warming trends relative to the trajectory implied by current emissions—i.e., humanity will make substantial, measurable progress in reducing or reversing the rate of global temperature increase worldwide.
I think that we're going to do wonders over the next 20 and 30 and 40 years all over the world to push back on the general state of warming. But I think it will have happened because the economic incentives aligned, not because of. A philosophical or emotional framing of the issue.View on YouTube
Explanation

The prediction explicitly concerns long‑term outcomes over the next 20–40 years from 2024 (i.e., roughly 2024–2044 or even out to 2064). As of today (2025‑11‑30), at most ~1–2 years have elapsed since the prediction window began.

Whether “economic incentives” (e.g., cheaper clean energy, new technologies) will, by 2044–2064, significantly push back on global warming relative to the current trajectory cannot be determined yet. Climate system responses and policy/market shifts that would validate or falsify this prediction unfold over decades, not a year or two. Current global temperature and emissions data only speak to very short‑term trends and say little about whether long‑run technological and economic dynamics will ultimately “do wonders” to mitigate warming.

Because:

  • The forecasted timeframe (20–40 years) has not remotely elapsed, and
  • No reasonable, evidence‑based assessment can yet be made about what the world will look like by 2044–2064 in terms of warming and technology-driven mitigation,

the prediction’s accuracy is too early to judge.