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Last updated Nov 29, 2025
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Chamath @ 01:05:35Inconclusive
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Apple’s integration of advanced AI (e.g., a powerful chatbot/Siri upgrade) into future $1,000+ iPhones will not trigger a major new hardware-upgrade supercycle; over the next few years, the bulk of iPhone users will not upgrade primarily because of on-device AI features, leading Apple to be disappointed with AI-driven incremental iPhone sales relative to expectations.
the idea that Apple with this $1,000 device is all of a sudden going to figure out that this is why you're going to upgrade, I think is pretty speculative, and I think they're going to be disappointed. I think people have realized that four generations ago was more than enough.View on YouTube
Explanation

As of November 30, 2025, it is too early to conclusively judge this multi‑year prediction.

Key points:

  • Timeframe: Chamath framed this around what happens "over the next few years". Only ~1.5 years have passed since June 2024, and Apple’s flagship AI initiative (Apple Intelligence, new Siri, deeper on‑device features) is still in a staggered rollout, with several major Siri/agentic capabilities delayed into 2026 and beyond.(9to5mac.com) The full consumer impact of those features on upgrade behavior isn’t observable yet.

  • No clear AI supercycle yet: Some early data suggest no obvious, already‑realized AI supercycle. For example, an October 2024 analyst note reported that indicators showed iPhone sales for the first AI‑centric cycle were roughly on par with the prior year, and that people were not yet treating AI as a major draw for upgrades.(9to5mac.com) A March 2025 report based on Morgan Stanley’s work similarly argued that delays and limitations in Apple Intelligence had dented enthusiasm and that a hoped‑for supercycle was being tempered into a more gradual upgrade path.(applemust.com) A UBS/Barron’s analysis in 2025 also found that Apple Intelligence had not yet spurred widespread upgrading, with the average iPhone age still around 37 months.(barrons.com) These support the direction of Chamath’s skepticism, but they only cover the initial phase, not the full "few years" horizon.

  • But iPhone sales have recovered and AI is a factor: At the same time, iPhone sales have been strong in 2024–2025. Apple’s July–September 2024 quarter showed iPhone revenue up about 6% year‑over‑year, with management and analysts explicitly linking part of the boost to the AI‑branded iPhone 16 lineup, even as they cautioned that sustained enthusiasm was uncertain.(apnews.com) By Q3 2025 (Apple’s 2025 fiscal quarter), the company reported record revenue and double‑digit iPhone growth, while heavily emphasizing ongoing AI investments and Apple Intelligence as a driver of its product roadmap.(businessinsider.com) This indicates AI is helping demand, but it does not clearly confirm or refute the notion of a multi‑year “supercycle” or eventual disappointment relative to internal expectations.

  • Apple’s expectations and "disappointment" are opaque: The prediction hinges not just on whether a classic supercycle happens, but on whether Apple ends up disappointed with AI‑driven incremental iPhone sales relative to its own expectations. Apple has not published a quantitative target for AI‑induced upgrades that would let outsiders clearly say “they missed.” Public commentary so far mixes optimism about AI with cautious language about gradual adoption and staggered feature rollouts, which is not the same as explicit disappointment.

Because the core claim is about behavior and company sentiment over several years, and much of Apple’s more advanced on‑device AI functionality (and corresponding user response) is still ahead in 2026+, current evidence is insufficient to say the prediction is definitively right or wrong. Hence the status is best labeled inconclusive (too early).