As of November 30, 2025, there isn’t enough evidence yet to say that social norms have clearly shifted in the way Chamath predicts.

On the "intrusive" social interfaces side:

• AI smart glasses and related wearables are growing quickly from a small base. Ray‑Ban Meta smart glasses have sold over 2 million units since late 2023, and global smart‑glasses shipments grew ~200% in 2024; AI smart glasses made up the majority of shipments by 2025, with vendors planning to scale production dramatically through 2026–2029. (counterpointresearch.com)
• Meta’s newer Ray‑Ban Display glasses add a wristband that tracks hand movements so users can control apps via gestures—exactly the kind of gestural interface he’s skeptical about—and U.S. smart‑glasses sales tripled in 2025, even if the category is still niche and faces price/privacy concerns. (reuters.com)
• Brands are actively normalizing these devices in social and cultural venues (e.g., fashion shows and experiential pop‑ups, including an immersive Ray‑Ban Meta installation that was remounted for events like Cannes and Coachella), which suggests ongoing experimentation with them in group social environments rather than a clear rejection. (fashionista.com)

At the same time, there is evidence of pushback and discomfort:

• Humane’s screenless, clip‑on AI Pin—an archetype of a conspicuous, always‑on AI wearable—was a commercial and usability failure, drawing very negative reviews and high return rates, and was shut down less than a year after launch, with services ending in February 2025. (theverge.com)
• Camera‑equipped smart glasses are provoking privacy backlash, especially among Gen Z, with viral incidents and coverage emphasizing fears of being recorded without consent in everyday life, even though the devices include indicator lights. (washingtonpost.com)
• Bulky headsets like Apple Vision Pro still provoke social awkwardness in public; many users report feeling they’re not yet socially acceptable outside controlled contexts (home, planes, some work environments), which points to limits on how far obviously isolating wearables can go in shared spaces. (en.wikipedia.org)

On the "passive/utility" wearables side, his view matches current trends but that trend long predates the prediction:

• Fitness trackers, smartwatches, and similar bands are a very large and fast‑growing market, with tens of billions in annual revenue and strong projected growth into the 2030s. (fortunebusinessinsights.com)
• Continuous glucose monitors and metabolic‑health wearables are expanding rapidly into both clinical and consumer segments (e.g., Abbott’s Lingo CGM moving into Walmart retail, DexCom’s extended‑wear CGMs, and integrations between CGMs and wearables like the Oura Ring). (reuters.com)
  These devices are generally accepted in daily life, which is consistent with his claim that "band" and health‑oriented wearables retain social value.

However, the core of his prediction is about future social norms “over the coming years” in group social environments (e.g., concerts/festivals) decisively turning against socially intrusive, gestural interfaces—people “ripping the devices off” and choosing to participate without them. As of ~1.5 years after the prediction:

• Intrusive/AI wearables are still in the early‑adoption phase; their market is growing, not shrinking, but remains niche.
• Norms around when and where they’re acceptable are still forming and are clearly contested (privacy backlash vs. growing curiosity and early mainstream marketing).
• There is no clear empirical evidence yet that, at scale, people at concerts/festivals are either broadly rejecting or fully embracing these interfaces; we mostly see experiments, marketing pushes, and scattered anecdotes rather than stable norms.

Because (1) the stated horizon is multi‑year, (2) adoption and backlash are both increasing from a small base, and (3) large‑scale social norms in the specific settings he mentions (concerts, festivals) are not yet well‑established in the data, it’s too early to judge the prediction as clearly right or wrong. Hence: inconclusive.