Antony Blinken’s April 4, 2024 remarks in Brussels clearly stated that “Ukraine will become a member of NATO” and that the goal of the Washington summit was to “help build a bridge to that membership and to create a clear pathway for Ukraine moving forward.”(en.interfax.com.ua) In the immediate aftermath (the next several days of coverage), U.S. and NATO messaging simply repeated this line about building a “bridge” to eventual membership, with no official correction or dilution from the administration.(euromaidanpress.com)

However, in a Time magazine interview conducted in late May and published on June 4, 2024, President Biden said that peace in Ukraine “doesn’t mean [they are] part of NATO” and added: “I am not prepared to support the NATOization of Ukraine,” explicitly presenting a vision of Ukraine’s future security that does not require NATO membership.(time.com) Ukrainian and European outlets highlighted this as Biden reiterating he had not been a supporter of Ukraine joining NATO.(pravda.com.ua) The Washington Post described the comment as “appearing to rule out the country’s membership altogether and contradicting the U.S. government’s official stance,” i.e., contradicting the earlier “Ukraine will become a member of NATO” formulation.(washingtonpost.com) A Kyiv Post analysis likewise treated Biden’s remark as directly at odds with Blinken’s April assurance.(kyivpost.com)

Because the head of the same administration later articulated a position that cast serious doubt on, and was widely read as contradicting, Blinken’s categorical “Ukraine will become a member of NATO” line, this does amount to a significant softening/partial walk-back of that commitment in subsequent public communications. Under the normalized prediction (“the Biden administration will not significantly walk back or formally clarify this position in a way that meaningfully softens or reverses the commitment”), that outcome makes Sacks’s prediction wrong.