E173: Google buying HubSpot? FTX depositors not made whole, AI job fears, Ukraine joining NATO

In episode E173 on April 5, 2024, Jason introduces the new CEO, Jon Haile, and explicitly says that Jon’s first duty will be to “next week announce the details of the All-In Summit 2024, our third edition.” (podscripts.co)

The following week’s episode, E174 (released April 12, 2024), does indeed contain an “All-In Summit 2024 Announcement” segment and links to the registration page. That segment publicly reveals the key details: the event returns to Los Angeles and will be held September 8–10, 2024. (podcasts.apple.com) However, the episode credits and third-party show notes list only Friedberg, Chamath, and Sacks as the speakers, with the summit announcement specifically attributed to David Friedberg—not to Jon Haile. (allin.onpodcastai.com)

So while the content of the prediction (that the 2024 All-In Summit’s dates/location would be announced the following week) came true, the agent of that announcement was wrong: it was made on-air by the hosts, not by Jon Haile. Because the prediction is framed around Jon himself publicly making the announcement, it is best scored as wrong rather than partially correct.

Summary: Part (2) of Jason’s prediction (a live Q&A around 500k subs) has already happened. Part (1) (a special 1M-subscriber party) depends on the channel hitting 1,000,000 YouTube subscribers, which it has not yet done as of late November 2025, so the overall prediction is too early to fully evaluate.

What Jason predicted in E173 (Apr 5, 2024)
In episode E173 he said they would:

• Hold “a 1 million subscriber party” when the All-In YouTube channel hits 1,000,000 subscribers.
• When they were at 486,000 subscribers, do “a live Q&A with all the besties” once they added 14,000 more subscribers (i.e., around 500,000 subs). (podscripts.co)

Status of the 500k-subscriber live Q&A (Part 2)

• On June 28, 2024, the All-In channel ran a livestream titled “500K Subscriber Livestream! | All-In Podcast” explicitly celebrating reaching 500,000 subscribers on YouTube. (getrecall.ai)
• The video’s description states “ONLY SUBSCRIBERS CAN ASK LIVE QUESTIONS!”, indicating it was a live Q&A-style event with questions from subscribers (“besties”). (videohighlight.com)
• Summaries of the stream confirm it was a live chat / Q&A format tied to the 500k milestone, and during that stream they again talk about future subscriber milestones and a planned million-subscriber party. (getrecall.ai)

This matches Jason’s promise of a live Q&A when going from ~486k to ~500k subs, so Part (2) has come true.

Status of the 1M-subscriber party (Part 1)

• Multiple analytics trackers show the All-In Podcast YouTube channel is still under 1,000,000 subscribers as of late November 2025:
  • SPEAKRJ lists 972,000 subscribers as of November 23, 2025. (speakrj.com)
  • SocialCounts.org’s live counter shows about 974,963 subscribers on November 27, 2025. (socialcounts.org)
• Other coverage and transcripts refer to a planned million-subscriber party (including mentions of a future Vegas party) but there is no evidence that a 1M-subscriber party has actually been held yet, and the precondition (reaching 1M subs) clearly has not occurred. (podcasts.happyscribe.com)

Conclusion

• Part (2): The ~500k live Q&A with subscriber questions has happened.
• Part (1): The 1M subscriber threshold has not yet been reached, so the promised 1M-subscriber party has not yet happened and isn’t overdue.

Because the overall prediction is conjunctive (they will do both things) and the first part is still pending on a future milestone, the correct overall judgment today (Nov 30, 2025) is "inconclusive" (too early to fully determine).

Evidence from regulatory filings and multiple news outlets shows that Donald Trump did in fact receive an additional 36 million shares of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) as an earnout award, and that these shares were worth on the order of $1.6–$1.8 billion at the time:

• The merger agreement included up to 36 million “earnout” shares for Trump if DJT’s share price stayed above set benchmarks (notably $17.50) for 20 out of 30 trading days beginning March 25, 2024. (cnbc.com)
• By April 22, 2024, CNBC reported Trump was poised to receive up to 36 million additional shares once that 20-day condition was satisfied. (cnbc.com)
• A later CNBC piece reports that Trump received 36 million more shares on Friday, April 26, 2024, as an earnout bonus, bringing his total holdings to 114.75 million shares; at a DJT closing price of $49.93, the new block alone was worth about $1.8 billion (“almost $2 billion”). (cnbc.com)
• AP and other outlets likewise report that Trump was awarded 36 million additional shares, raising his stake to more than 114 million shares, with the grant valued around $1.6–$1.8 billion, depending on the reference price. (valuethemarkets.com)

Match to the prediction:

• Number of shares: Predicted ≈36 million; actual grant = 36,000,000 shares → accurate.
• Value: Predicted “almost $2 billion”; contemporaneous valuations around $1.6–$1.8 billion → very close in magnitude.
• Timing: Jason said “in the coming week” (normalized as “within roughly one week” of the April 5 episode). In reality, the grant was made on April 26, 2024, about three weeks after the episode.

Because the core substantive claim—that Trump would receive about 36 million extra DJT shares worth nearly $2 billion—did indeed come true (albeit a bit later than implied), this prediction is best classified as right, with the caveat that the timing was off by roughly two weeks.

Alphabet/Google never actually proceeded with an acquisition of HubSpot. In early April 2024, reports said Alphabet was considering a bid for HubSpot, but no formal offer was made and no deal was announced.【0search9】 On July 10, 2024, Bloomberg and Reuters reported that Alphabet had shelved its efforts to acquire HubSpot and that the talks had never progressed to due diligence.【0search1】【0search6】 Subsequent coverage described this as a "failed" or abandoned deal, with HubSpot continuing as an independent public company into late 2024 and 2025.【0news14】

Chamath's prediction was conditional: if Google proceeded with acquiring HubSpot, antitrust review and approval would take on the order of three years from announcement to close. Because Google never proceeded to an announced acquisition, the antitrust-review timeline he predicted was never tested in reality. There is therefore no observable outcome by which to judge whether "three years" would have been accurate.

Since the necessary condition (a formal Google–HubSpot acquisition attempt) did not occur, the correctness of the predicted 3-year review period cannot be determined. Hence the result is ambiguous, not right or wrong.

The prediction window is from early April 2024 to early April 2029. As of 30 November 2025, we are only ~1.5 years into that 5‑year period, so it is too early to know if general‑purpose humanoid domestic robots will fail to become widely available by April 2029.

Current market status:

• 1X’s NEO “Home Robot” opened pre‑orders in October 2025, with deliveries planned for 2026. It targets private homes but is expensive (~$20,000 for early adopters) and initially relies heavily on teleoperation by remote humans, with the company explicitly positioning these early units as data‑gathering and training platforms rather than fully autonomous, general‑purpose home servants. This is not yet a mass‑market, widely adopted consumer product. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Tesla Optimus is in limited internal use and targeted first at factory tasks. Musk and coverage describe limited production in 2025, with availability to other businesses in 2026 and an eventual consumer version still several years away, with timelines often framed as 3–5+ years out from 2024–2025. As of late 2025, no consumer Optimus is on sale. (benzinga.com)
• Agility Robotics’ Digit and similar humanoids (e.g., from Agility, Apptronik) are being deployed commercially in logistics, warehousing, and manufacturing, not as general‑purpose home robots. (agilityrobotics.com)
• Industry coverage of leading humanoid‑robot firms (Tesla, Figure, 1X, Agility, Boston Dynamics, Apptronik) consistently emphasizes near‑term industrial and logistics use, with home use framed as a future step. (businessinsider.com)
• Existing and upcoming domestic robots like Samsung’s Ballie and ASUS Zenbo are either non‑humanoid companion/smart‑home devices or relatively limited in capability, not the kind of general‑purpose humanoid doing a broad range of household tasks autonomously. (en.wikipedia.org)

So far, reality does not contradict Sacks’ claim: there are still no widely available, general‑purpose humanoid domestic robots in typical homes as of late 2025. However, because the key part of the prediction is that such robots will not be widely available by April 2029, and we have not yet reached that date, the correctness of the prediction cannot be definitively judged. It remains plausible but unproven, hence the result is “inconclusive (too early)” rather than clearly right or wrong.

As of late 2025, the current pattern of AI‑enabled robot deployment is strongly consistent with Sacks’ prediction, but his stated horizon (“in the near term” / “over the next several years, into the late 2020s”) has not finished yet, so it’s too early to declare it definitively right or wrong.

What we see so far (2023–2025):

• Industrial robots massively dominate robot deployment: the International Federation of Robotics (IFR) reports a record 4.28 million robots operating on factory floors worldwide in 2023, with more than 540,000 new industrial units installed annually in 2023–2024.(linkedin.com) This is orders of magnitude larger than any other robot category.
• Professional service robots are growing, but they’re also mostly industrial or commercial, not domestic: in 2023 over 205,000 professional service robots were sold, and more than half were for transportation and logistics (warehouse/industrial handling), with other big segments in hospitality, cleaning, agriculture, and security.(ifr.org) These are deployed in workplaces, malls, hospitals, airports, etc., not as general‑purpose home helpers.
• Humanoid and “advanced” robots in 2024–2025 are primarily piloted in factories and logistics. An IDTechEx market study notes that, as of 2025, humanoid robots in the automotive sector are still in early pilot tests, doing basic material‑handling and inspection, and that general‑purpose humanoids in non‑industrial areas (like healthcare) are even further away; warehouse pilots number fewer than 100 humanoid units.(idtechex.com) A Wired piece similarly frames 2025 as the year of the humanoid robot factory worker, with Boston Dynamics’ Atlas going into a Hyundai plant.(wired.com) A deployment survey of humanoids shows they are working mainly in logistics, security, elder care, retail, and R&D pilots—again, institutional rather than home use.(mechonomics.co)
• Military use of robots and drones is substantial and growing: Ukraine is creating dedicated units of robotic ground vehicles; Russia has formed a large drone‑warfare unit (“Rubicon”); and the US and allies are developing collaborative combat drones like the XQ‑58 Valkyrie and long‑endurance UAVs such as ULTRA.(reuters.com) This supports the prediction’s mention of military applications.
• By contrast, general‑purpose robots in private homes are still rare and experimental. A notable example, 1X’s NEO “home robot,” only opened pre‑orders in October 2025, targets early adopters at about $20,000 (or $499/month), and currently relies heavily on remote human teleoperation rather than full autonomy—indicating an early, niche market rather than broad deployment.(en.wikipedia.org) Analysts also project that truly general‑purpose humanoid robots for non‑industrial domains will not begin to scale until later in the decade.(idtechex.com)

Why the verdict is “inconclusive”:

• Sacks’ directional claim—that in the near term most practical deployment of advanced AI robots would be industrial or military rather than as general‑purpose home robots—matches the evidence up to November 2025.
• However, the normalized prediction explicitly extends “through at least the late 2020s.” We have not yet reached that point, and rapid breakthroughs or unexpected consumer adoption (e.g., affordable, capable home humanoids post‑2026) could still change the balance.

So, while the world in 2024–2025 looks very much like what he described, the multi‑year horizon is still unfolding, making the overall prediction inconclusive (too early to fully score).

Chamath’s claim was that within about 2–3 years (from April 2024), people would “have a domestic help robot that you can probably pay 1000 bucks a month for”—i.e., a general‑purpose household robot, capable of multiple chores like dishes and laundry, available for home use at roughly that price point.

As of late 2025, there are early consumer humanoid home robots, but they are still in limited rollout and not yet clearly matching his vision at scale:

• 1X Technologies’ NEO is a humanoid home robot designed to do chores like unloading the dishwasher, folding laundry, tidying, etc. It opened pre‑orders in October 2025 for home use, at about $20,000 outright or roughly $499/month on a subscription plan, with deliveries scheduled for 2026. However, reports note that many tasks are still tele‑operated by remote human operators rather than being fully autonomous. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Weave’s Isaac is another “robot butler” aimed at household tasks such as folding laundry and organizing spaces, with first customer shipments planned for fall 2025. Its pricing is around $59,000 or about $1,385 per month for 48 months, which is the same order of magnitude as $1,000/month but at a very high total cost and for a very small number of early customers. (therundown.ai)

These products show that multi‑task domestic robots for home use are just beginning to appear, some with subscription models in the same ballpark as $1,000/month. But:

1. The prediction’s time window (2026–2027) has not finished yet. We are only ~1.5 years after the April 2024 statement, and his explicit horizon was “the next 2 or 3 years.”
2. Current offerings are early, expensive, and/or heavily teleoperated, rather than robust general‑purpose household help at a clearly established ~$1,000/month price point for typical consumers.

Because the deadline has not yet passed and the market is still emerging, it is too early to say definitively whether his prediction will prove right or wrong.

So the appropriate status as of November 30, 2025 is: inconclusive (too early to judge).

The prediction specifies a timeline of seven years from April 2024, which points to around April 2031 as the target date by which “every middle class household in America” will have a ~$1,000/month general‑purpose domestic robot. The current date is November 30, 2025, which is less than two years into that seven‑year window. Because the deadline for the prediction has not yet arrived, it’s too early to determine whether this adoption level will actually occur. Therefore, the accuracy of the prediction cannot yet be evaluated.

Antony Blinken’s April 4, 2024 remarks in Brussels clearly stated that “Ukraine will become a member of NATO” and that the goal of the Washington summit was to “help build a bridge to that membership and to create a clear pathway for Ukraine moving forward.”(en.interfax.com.ua) In the immediate aftermath (the next several days of coverage), U.S. and NATO messaging simply repeated this line about building a “bridge” to eventual membership, with no official correction or dilution from the administration.(euromaidanpress.com)

However, in a Time magazine interview conducted in late May and published on June 4, 2024, President Biden said that peace in Ukraine “doesn’t mean [they are] part of NATO” and added: “I am not prepared to support the NATOization of Ukraine,” explicitly presenting a vision of Ukraine’s future security that does not require NATO membership.(time.com) Ukrainian and European outlets highlighted this as Biden reiterating he had not been a supporter of Ukraine joining NATO.(pravda.com.ua) The Washington Post described the comment as “appearing to rule out the country’s membership altogether and contradicting the U.S. government’s official stance,” i.e., contradicting the earlier “Ukraine will become a member of NATO” formulation.(washingtonpost.com) A Kyiv Post analysis likewise treated Biden’s remark as directly at odds with Blinken’s April assurance.(kyivpost.com)

Because the head of the same administration later articulated a position that cast serious doubt on, and was widely read as contradicting, Blinken’s categorical “Ukraine will become a member of NATO” line, this does amount to a significant softening/partial walk-back of that commitment in subsequent public communications. Under the normalized prediction (“the Biden administration will not significantly walk back or formally clarify this position in a way that meaningfully softens or reverses the commitment”), that outcome makes Sacks’s prediction wrong.