ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Episodes / E164: Zuck's Senate apology, Elon's comp package voided, crony capitalism, Reddit IPO, drone attack
Back
Jason @ 00:23:24Inconclusive
techgovernment
In the coming years, U.S. policy or industry standards will move toward restricting mainstream social media use to users roughly 15–16 years old and above, with underage users (around 12–15) only allowed on such platforms with explicit parental permission enforced via handset manufacturers and/or the social media services.
These companies are going to have to say, well, if we lose the 12 to 15 year olds, is that better for society and better for our business? And we just all agree that social media should start at 15 or 16. And then the handset manufacturers and the and the social sites all have you have to get permission from your parents to use them, period. Full stop. And that's it. And that may be where this all winds up, I think.View on YouTube
Explanation

As of November 30, 2025, the world has not yet reached the specific regime Jason described, but policy and product debates are actively moving in that general direction, and his time horizon (“in the coming years”) is still open.

Key facts:

  • Federal baseline is still 13, not 15–16. The main U.S. law governing kids’ online privacy, COPPA, continues to focus on children under 13 and does not impose a general 15–16+ access rule for social media. Platforms typically respond by setting a nominal minimum age of 13, not 15 or 16. (ftc.gov)

  • States have experimented with higher ages and parental consent, but these laws are fragile. Utah’s 2023–24 Social Media Regulation Act requires age verification and parental consent for minors under 18, but a federal judge issued a preliminary injunction blocking the law, finding it likely unconstitutional. (aaaa.org) Florida passed H.B. 3, banning accounts for kids under 14 and requiring parental consent for 14–15‑year‑olds, but a federal judge similarly halted enforcement as a First Amendment violation. (reuters.com) Virginia’s SB 854, effective January 1, 2026, will limit social media for under‑16s to one hour per day unless parents consent and will require age verification, but it is not yet in force and is already being challenged by NetChoice. (en.wikipedia.org) These moves show some policy momentum toward stronger parental-gatekeeping for teens, but not a stable, nationwide standard.

  • Federal proposals fall short of a 15–16+ baseline. The bipartisan Kids Off Social Media Act, reintroduced in 2025 and advanced out of Senate committee, would ban users under 13 from social media and restrict algorithmic recommendations for those under 17, but it does not set a 15–16 minimum age for general access and has not yet become law. (congress.gov)

  • Industry standards and handset enforcement have not converged on Jason’s model. Major platforms (Meta, TikTok, Snap, YouTube) still operate with a 13+ entry age, while layering on teen safety modes and some parental controls, rather than a hard 15–16+ cutoff. Meta now requires parental consent for certain features (like Instagram Live) for under‑16s in the U.S. and other countries, but not for having an account at all. (apnews.com) Apple has expanded Screen Time and App Store parental controls, letting parents gate apps (including social apps) and grant exceptions, but it does not impose a universal rule that 12–15‑year‑olds can only use mainstream social media with verified parental permission by default; it simply provides tools families may choose to enable. (apple.com)

  • Net effect as of late 2025: There is clear movement toward more parental involvement and tighter teen controls, and a few state laws directly target under‑16 social media use, but these efforts are patchy, heavily litigated, and far from an accepted U.S.-wide policy or industry standard that “social media should start at 15 or 16” with mandatory parental permission for younger teens enforced by handset makers and platforms.

Because Jason explicitly framed this as something that might happen “where this all winds up” in the coming years, and because neither the predicted 15–16 baseline nor the enforcement model has clearly materialized yet (while remaining plausible given ongoing legislative and regulatory activity), the prediction cannot be judged definitively right or wrong at this point. Hence the result is inconclusive (too early to tell).