Jason’s prediction was explicitly about a long horizon: “in our lifetime… I don’t think that’s happening for 20 years or so,” i.e., no repeat of the 2020–2021-style combo of near‑zero rates plus massive direct fiscal and monetary stimulus for roughly two decades. Evaluating this in November 2025 means only ~1.8 years of a ~20‑year forecast have elapsed, so the statement cannot yet be definitively confirmed or falsified.

Empirically, the specific 2020–2021 regime he referenced was quite extreme: policy rates were near zero in 2020–2021 (effective Fed funds about 0.37% in 2020 and 0.08% in 2021) while Congress and the Fed delivered over $5.5 trillion of COVID‑related relief through the CARES Act, PPP and Health Care Enhancement Act, Consolidated Appropriations Act, and the American Rescue Plan, much of it in direct transfers and emergency programs. (ycharts.com)

Since the podcast (January 2024), rates have remained far from zero: the Fed kept the target range around 5.25–5.5% through most of 2024, then eased to 4.25–4.5% in late 2024 and maintained that range into mid‑2025, with effective rates around 4–5% in 2024–2025. (ycharts.com) Fiscal policy has included large tax and budget packages (e.g., the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” and the Rescissions Act of 2025), but these are conventional tax/spending changes, not a new wave of multi‑trillion‑dollar emergency checks and subsidies on the scale and form of the pandemic bills—and critically, they’re occurring alongside positive real rates, not ZIRP. (en.wikipedia.org)

So, as of late 2025, the data to date are consistent with Jason’s claim (no repeat yet of the 2020–2021 environment), but the forecast is about the next ~20 years. There is still ample time for future shocks that could trigger another zero‑rate, massive‑stimulus episode. Because the prediction’s horizon has not come close to expiring, the correct classification now is “inconclusive (too early)”, not right or wrong.