Using major U.S. equity indices as proxies, Chamath’s call that markets would be in a continuing melt‑up and be materially higher 18–24 months after Jan 26, 2024 is borne out by the data so far.

• Starting point (Jan 26, 2024):

  • S&P 500 closed at 4,890.97 on Jan 26, 2024. (statmuse.com)
  • Nasdaq Composite closed at 15,455.36 that day. (statmuse.com)

• Around 18 months later (late July 2025):

  • On Jul 25, 2025, the S&P 500 closed at 6,388.64, roughly 31% above its Jan 26, 2024 close. (statmuse.com)
  • On the same date, the Nasdaq Composite closed at 21,108.32, about 37% higher than Jan 26, 2024. (statmuse.com)
  • News reports note all three major U.S. indexes (S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq) at or near record highs that week, consistent with a “melt‑up” characterization. (apnews.com)

• By ~22 months later (late Nov 2025, within the 18–24 month window):

  • The S&P 500 closed at 6,849.09 on Nov 28, 2025, about 40% above its Jan 26, 2024 level. (statmuse.com)
  • StatMuse shows the latest Nasdaq Composite level at 22,273.08, roughly 44% above its Jan 26, 2024 close. (statmuse.com)
  • Coverage in late Nov 2025 describes the S&P 500 and Nasdaq as up strongly year‑to‑date and near record highs, reinforcing the idea of an extended, valuation‑rich bull run rather than a flat or down market. (apnews.com)

Although the full 24‑month window (to late Jan 2026) has not entirely elapsed, the prediction’s key test—whether, when we look back 18–24 months from Jan 26, 2024, index levels are materially higher—is already clearly satisfied at both the 18‑month mark (July 2025) and ~22 months (Nov 2025). Major U.S. equity indices are substantially higher and have set repeated record highs over this period, which is exactly the scenario described as a continuing “melt up.”

Given that, the most reasonable classification with current data is “right.”