Friedberg @ 01:28:55Right
In the next couple of weeks following this January 26, 2024 recording, California will experience wet, possibly very wet weather, but it will not experience an Arkstorm‑level mega-flood event; no Arkstorm 2.0-style catastrophic flooding is imminent in that period.
a lot of meteorologists have looked at the ensemble, which is the simulation model forecasts, and said, you know what? It's not going to be Arkstorm 2.0. It's going to be wet over the next couple of weeks. It could be very wet. But this isn't the big mega flood event that everyone's been worried about, so rest assured it's not imminent.View on YouTube
Explanation
Available evidence shows that in the ~two weeks after the January 26, 2024 recording (through about February 9, 2024), California did have very wet conditions, including major storms, but did not experience an ARkStorm‑ or ARkStorm 2.0‑level megaflood.
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What an ARkStorm/ARkStorm 2.0 event would look like
- ARkStorm is a hypothetical California “megastorm” scenario involving weeks of near‑continuous intense atmospheric river storms, up to ~10 feet of water in some areas, and estimated damages on the order of $725 billion to $1 trillion, far beyond typical severe storms. (nationalgeographic.com)
- ARkStorm 2.0 is an updated modeling study showing climate change roughly doubles the odds of such a catastrophic megaflood, but it remains a scenario that has not yet occurred. (gmd.copernicus.org)
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What actually happened in the couple of weeks after Jan 26, 2024
- In early February 2024 (Feb 4–7), California was hit by two strong atmospheric river events, bringing record or near‑record rainfall, hurricane‑force wind gusts in some locations, widespread flooding, mudslides, power outages, and at least 9 deaths. (en.wikipedia.org)
- Damage estimates for this storm sequence are on the order of billions of dollars (roughly $3 billion in direct damages and $9–11 billion in total economic loss), which is severe but still orders of magnitude below the ARkStorm megaflood scenario. (en.wikipedia.org)
- National Geographic, writing on February 8, 2024, explicitly notes that while the first week of February saw “historic storms and record rainfall” that killed nine people and damaged numerous homes, this “pales in comparison” to an ARkStorm‑level event and that ARkStorm remains a hypothetical disaster being discussed in the context of social‑media rumors. (nationalgeographic.com)
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Comparison to the prediction
- Predicted: The next couple of weeks would be wet/very wet, but not an imminent ARkStorm 2.0‑style catastrophic megaflood.
- Observed: Early‑February atmospheric rivers did indeed produce very wet conditions, historic rain totals, and serious but regional flooding and damage. However, by all available accounts they fell far short of the statewide, weeks‑long, trillion‑dollar, ARkStorm‑scale megaflood described in the scientific and emergency‑planning literature. (en.wikipedia.org)
Because California experienced intense storms and flooding but no ARkStorm‑level, ARkStorm 2.0‑style megaflood in the stated time window, Friedberg’s prediction is best judged as right.