ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
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Chamath @ 00:21:32Wrong
conflictpoliticseconomy
The Israel–Gaza war and the emerging conflict around Houthi attacks in the Red Sea will both be resolved quickly (within a relatively short timeframe from Dec 2023), as regional and global powers will come together to pressure Iran and other actors in order to protect their multi-decade economic plans.
All roads, I think, lead, in my opinion, to a coming together of folks to say, okay, let's use this as a definitive moment to just clean the decks here. And I think that that'll put a lot of pressure on Iran, a lot of pressure on the money flows. I suspect that both of these two hot wars get resolved quickly, because the larger, multi-decade implications for the Middle East are too big to let it be subsumed by the Houthi rebels or Hamas.View on YouTube
Explanation

By late 2025, neither conflict had been resolved quickly.

For the Israel–Gaza war: Heavy fighting continued throughout 2024 and well into 2025, with large-scale Israeli offensives (e.g., the May–August 2025 Gaza offensive) and only intermittent, fragile ceasefires. A UN report describes the Palestinian economy suffering its worst-ever collapse after a two‑year war in Gaza, and estimates rebuilding costs of $70+ billion, underscoring the prolonged nature of the conflict rather than a rapid resolution.(reuters.com) Even after a U.S.-brokered ceasefire in October 2025, violence, internal clashes and protests in Gaza remained ongoing, showing the war’s political and security dimensions were far from “cleaned up.”(reuters.com)

For the Houthi Red Sea crisis: Houthi attacks on shipping, and U.S.–UK (and allied) strikes in Yemen, persisted through 2024 and into 2025. A UK Parliament research briefing notes repeated U.S.–UK strikes from January–May 2024 and further U.S. strikes as late as January 2025, in response to continued Houthi attacks.(commonslibrary.parliament.uk) As of November 2025, reporting indicates the Houthis have only pulled back somewhat from Red Sea attacks and have not formally ended their maritime campaign, instead tying their actions to conditions around Gaza and threatening to resume operations.(aljazeera.com)

While there was coordinated international pressure (UN resolutions, U.S.–UK and allied military action, diplomatic efforts) on Iran-backed groups including the Houthis, this did not lead to both the Israel–Gaza war and the Red Sea conflict being wrapped up in a short timeframe from December 2023. The core prediction—that both “hot wars” would be resolved quickly due to such pressure—did not materialize.