As of late 2025, the NAR settlement and related Missouri verdict did trigger structural rule changes (e.g., banning explicit buyer‑broker commission offers in MLS listings and requiring written buyer‑agent agreements), but empirical studies show that average U.S. commission rates have stayed roughly flat or even edged up slightly—around 5.3–5.4% total, with buyer‑agent commissions near 2.4%—rather than falling meaningfully for consumers. (wsj.com) NAR membership has declined from its 2022 peak of about 1.6 million to roughly 1.5 million in 2024–2025, yet trade press and NAR leaders attribute most of this attrition to the broader housing slump and cyclical market conditions, and many agents who drop NAR remain licensed and active via non‑Realtor pathways, so there is not clear evidence yet of large, lawsuit‑driven job losses or an across‑the‑board collapse in agent incomes. (realestatenews.com) Industry analysts and plaintiffs’ attorneys characterize the reforms as a potential “generational” shift whose most significant competitive and pricing effects may take years to fully materialize, and survey data from Redfin show that most agents report commissions in their areas as roughly unchanged or only modestly lower so far, with the expectation—not yet the reality—of future declines. (realestatenews.com) Overall, the lawsuits have clearly altered rules and may eventually drive lower or differently structured commissions and greater agent attrition, but by November 2025 there is insufficient evidence that they have already produced the substantial consumer savings and widespread negative economic impact on agents described in the prediction, so the ultimate accuracy of the forecast cannot yet be determined.