Key parts of Jason’s predicted direction are partly materializing, but the forecast horizon (“in the next few years after 2023”) is not over and the final market structure is still unsettled.

What has happened so far (supports parts of his view):

• In March 2024, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) agreed to a $418M nationwide settlement in Burnett/Sitzer, with major practice changes effective August 17, 2024. The cooperative-compensation rule was eliminated, and sellers are no longer required to offer a set commission to buyer’s agents via the MLS.(en.wikipedia.org) This removes the old, MLS-driven “standard” split that underpinned the de facto 5–6% total commission.
• NAR’s own guidance now stresses that broker fees are fully negotiable, and that written agreements must spell out compensation in an objective form (flat fee, percentage, hourly, etc.).(nar.realtor) Many local associations are revising listing forms so sellers explicitly approve any money paid to other brokers and see compensation broken out by side. For example, the Iowa City Area Association of Realtors’ updated listing agreement “break[s] apart” compensation to state separately what the listing broker and a buyer broker will receive, and requires written seller approval for any payment to another broker.(icaar.org) Florida Realtors created specific “Compensation Agreement – Seller to Buyer’s Broker” and related modification forms, so sellers can affirm or adjust what they will pay a buyer’s broker on a per-transaction basis.(floridarealtors.org) These kinds of changes move in the direction Jason described: sellers explicitly deciding what to pay, rather than passively accepting a pre-filled 6% split.

Where reality diverges or is still unclear:

• The NAR settlement itself does not mandate a single national structure where every seller is presented with a standard form to “pick the percentage” for both listing and buyer’s agents; it mainly bans offers of compensation in the MLS and requires written buyer–broker agreements. Local and state associations are implementing different form structures, and some guidance even emphasizes that sellers now sign a listing agreement only for what they pay their own broker, with any buyer‑broker payments handled separately.(macleanrealtygroup.com) So his specific picture (one form where the seller dials in 2% for one side, 1.5% for the other, etc.) is emerging in some areas but is not yet universal.
• Despite more negotiability on paper, average commissions have not fallen much and remain close to traditional levels. Analyses from outlets like Kiplinger, the Wall Street Journal, and Investopedia report that overall commission rates are only slightly lower—or even slightly higher—than before, and many agents are informally re‑creating old commission splits off‑MLS.(investopedia.com) That means the practical norm often still resembles the old ~5–6% bundle, even if the legal structure has changed.
• Jason floated “caps” on percentages as a possible part of the outcome. As of late 2025, there are no broad regulatory caps on residential brokerage commission percentages in the U.S.; discussion has focused on transparency and decoupling, not hard percentage ceilings. (Some caps exist in unrelated contexts—e.g., GSE limits on closing-cost concessions—but those are not caps on broker commission rates themselves.(realestateinthedistrict.com))
• The U.S. Department of Justice has an active, reopened antitrust investigation into NAR’s commission rules, which the Supreme Court allowed to proceed in January 2025.(reuters.com) Further enforcement or settlements could still push the system closer to or farther from Jason’s envisioned structure over the next few years.

Why the verdict is “inconclusive”:

• The timeframe (“next few years after 2023”) runs beyond November 2025, so the forecast period is still in progress.
• We do see meaningful movement toward Jason’s core idea of sellers explicitly choosing how much they’ll pay, separately for their own broker and (if at all) for a buyer’s broker, via revised listing and compensation forms.
• But the change is not yet uniform or fully settled, typical commission levels remain close to the old norms, and no commission caps of the kind he speculated about have been adopted.

Given these mixed, still-evolving conditions and the incomplete timeframe, it’s too early to say his prediction is clearly right or clearly wrong, so “inconclusive (too early)” is the most accurate overall judgment.