Available data since late 2023 show a large, sustained pullback in LP commitments to venture funds relative to the 2020–2021 boom, and a corresponding drop in capital flowing into startups.

• In the U.S., VC fundraising peaked around 2021–2022 (~$170–190B per year) and then fell sharply: NVCA/PitchBook report only $66.9B raised across 474 funds in 2023 (a 61% drop from 2022 and the lowest since 2017) and about $76–77B across ~500+ funds in 2024, with fund counts at decade lows and fundraising described as ‘slow’ and concentrated in a few large managers.(scribd.com) Q3 2025 data show just $45.7B raised year‑to‑date, on track for the weakest year since 2017, indicating the slump is persisting rather than snapping back to 2020–2021 levels.(nvca.org)
• Globally, VC fundraising also dropped materially: PitchBook estimates global VC funds raised about $404B in 2021 versus roughly $170B in 2024, a decline of more than 50%.(blog.kowatek.com) Annual startup investment (deal value) followed suit, with global VC investments of ~$368B in 2024, about 50–55% below the 2021 peak (~$750B), despite a partial rebound driven by large AI rounds.(blog.kowatek.com)
• Industry commentary ties this directly to LP behavior: NVCA and PitchBook repeatedly note LP ‘hesitation’ and an inability or unwillingness to allocate new capital without more exits; dry powder is high but largely comes from earlier funds, while new fundraising is muted.(privatemarketsinsights.com) The Financial Times similarly reports that many LPs have pulled back from smaller and newer U.S. VC funds, with more than half of 2024’s U.S. VC fundraising going to just nine firms and a 25% drop in the number of active VC firms, reducing funding access for many startups.(ft.com)

Taken together, these data show that in the years following 2023 there has indeed been significantly less LP money going into venture funds and, in aggregate, substantially less capital deployed into startups than during the 2020–2021 cycle, matching the substance of Friedberg’s prediction so far.