Jason @ 01:21:40Right
economymarkets
The U.S. Federal Reserve will implement at least one interest-rate cut by sometime in the second half of 2024 (i.e., within roughly one year of September 2023).
And I guess 74% chance by the fourth quarter, third, fourth quarter of next year, people think there will be a rate cut. So we're a year away from a rate cut.View on YouTube
Explanation
The normalized prediction was that the U.S. Federal Reserve would implement at least one interest-rate cut in the second half of 2024 (Q3 or Q4).
That did happen:
- On September 18, 2024 (Q3 2024), the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points, lowering the target range from 5.25%–5.50% to 4.75%–5.00%. Multiple outlets identify this as the first rate cut in more than four years and the start of a new easing cycle. (cnbc.com)
- Reference summaries of the federal funds rate history also note that the Fed’s first post‑hiking cut occurred in September 2024. (en.wikipedia.org)
Since a clear rate cut occurred in Q3 2024, within the predicted “third, fourth quarter of next year” window relative to September 2023, the prediction is right.