Within 4–8 weeks of September 18, 2023 (roughly October 16–November 13, 2023), Vivek Ramaswamy did not become the clear #2 Republican presidential candidate in either national or New Hampshire polling averages.

Nationally, reconstructions of FiveThirtyEight’s GOP primary polling average show Ron DeSantis holding a solid second place through this period: around September 27, 2023 DeSantis was about 13–14% while Ramaswamy was ~6–7%, and by November 7 DeSantis was ~14% with Ramaswamy around 5%. (donsnotes.com) A broad set of late‑September and October national polls compiled by Wikipedia likewise show DeSantis generally in the low‑ to mid‑teens versus Ramaswamy in the mid‑single digits, with only an occasional near‑tie in an individual survey and no sustained period where Ramaswamy clearly led DeSantis. (en.wikipedia.org) By late 2023, Nikki Haley had actually overtaken Ramaswamy for third place in the FiveThirtyEight average, while DeSantis remained in second. (catholicvote.org)

In New Hampshire, one mid‑September UNH/CNN poll showed Ramaswamy briefly ahead of DeSantis (13% vs. 10%), but this was before the prediction’s 4–8 week window. (en.wikipedia.org) Subsequent New Hampshire polling did not make him a clear #2: a late‑September USA Today/Boston Globe/Suffolk poll had DeSantis 10% and Ramaswamy 4%, and mid‑November polls showed either Haley or DeSantis ahead of Ramaswamy (e.g., WaPo/Monmouth: Trump 46%, Haley 18%, Ramaswamy 8%, DeSantis 7; Emerson/WHDH: Haley ~18%, DeSantis ~7, Ramaswamy ~5). (en.wikipedia.org) In aggregate, New Hampshire data never produced a polling average in that timeframe where Ramaswamy was the clear #2.

Because Ramaswamy did not surpass DeSantis and establish himself as the clear second‑place Republican in either national or New Hampshire polling averages by mid‑October to mid‑November 2023, Chamath’s prediction did not come true.