Chamath’s prediction had two parts: (1) the Magnificent Seven would be the main winners, and (2) the rest of tech/growth would mostly stay in a “holding pattern” instead of recovering prior valuations.

1. Magnificent Seven outperformance (largely correct)

• In 2023, the Magnificent Seven returned about 107% on average and were responsible for nearly two‑thirds of the S&P 500’s 24% gain, far outpacing the broader market. (en.wikipedia.org)
• In 2024, the group gained roughly 47–63% as a basket, while the Russell 1000 Index returned ~24%. The Russell 1000 ex‑Magnificent Seven returned only ~16.5%, showing very large, sustained outperformance by the seven mega‑caps versus other large‑cap stocks. (paceretfs.com)

This confirms the direction of his view: the Magnificent Seven did materially outperform most other equities over the 1–2 years after September 2023.

2. “Everything else” trading sideways (contradicted by data)

• Broad U.S. growth and tech did not stay in a flat holding pattern. The Russell 1000 Growth index (a proxy for large‑cap growth/tech beyond just the Seven) returned 33.1% in 2024 alone, a very strong gain rather than sideways action. (financecharts.com)
• The Nasdaq Composite, a wider tech‑heavy benchmark, rose about 28.6% in 2024, again indicating a robust rally across many tech and growth names beyond the Magnificent Seven. (fool.com.au)
• Even when you explicitly strip out the Seven, the Russell 1000 ex‑Magnificent Seven still returned about 16.5% in 2024—slower than the mega‑caps but far from a flat market. (paceretfs.com)
• By early 2024, Goldman Sachs noted that the average S&P 500 stock’s valuation (equal‑weight index forward P/E ≈17) had become as stretched as that of the mega‑caps, reflecting a broad re‑rating of stocks beyond the Seven rather than valuations being stuck. (marketwatch.com)

On the private/VC side, it’s true that late‑stage venture and unicorn exits remained depressed versus the 2021 bubble, with 2023–24 seeing much lower exit values and down‑round pressure, especially outside hot AI names. (cbinsights.com) That lends some support to his pessimism about parts of the VC/unicorn universe, but it doesn’t rescue the broader claim that “everything else” in tech and growth would simply move sideways in public markets.

Overall assessment

• The core leadership call—Magnificent Seven outperforming the rest—was broadly right over 2023–24.
• The stronger claim that the rest of tech and growth would merely trade sideways and fail to recover valuations is clearly inconsistent with the double‑digit, often 20–30%+ annual gains seen in broad growth/tech benchmarks and in ex‑Magnificent‑Seven large‑cap indexes over that period.

Because the normalized prediction joins both ideas, and the second part is decisively refuted by realized returns and valuation data, the overall prediction is best classified as wrong, albeit directionally right about mega‑cap leadership.