Multiple independent sources show that, within three years of September 2023, Tesla introduced a U.S. Model Y trim with a base MSRP of about $40,000 (before taxes and incentives), matching Chamath’s forecast.

Key facts:

• In early October 2025, Tesla announced a new Model Y Standard for the U.S. market with a starting price of $39,990 before taxes and fees. (houstonchronicle.com)
• Coverage of the same launch notes that Tesla positioned this Model Y Standard explicitly as the new cheapest and entry-level Model Y, priced roughly $5,000 below the previous base trim (which had been $44,990). (karmactive.com)
• Independent spec/price listings (e.g., Cars.com) for the 2026 Tesla Model Y Standard RWD show an MSRP of $39,990 for the base configuration, confirming that this price point is not just a transient promotion. (cars.com)

Chamath’s normalized prediction was that the mainline Model Y would be “a $40,000 car” within three years of September 2023 (deadline September 2026). By October 2025—well before that deadline—Tesla was selling a mainstream Model Y Standard trim at $39,990 MSRP before incentives, i.e., approximately $40,000.

Because the predicted price level has already been reached by a regular production Model Y trim within the specified time window, the prediction is best classified as right.