Condition on deficits/issuance: In mid‑2023 the U.S. Treasury projected very large net marketable borrowing: about $1.007 trillion in Q3 2023 and $852 billion in Q4 2023—roughly $1.86 trillion total—assuming continued high deficits.(home.treasury.gov) An updated October 30, 2023 release reported actual borrowing of $1.010 trillion in Q3 and expected $776 billion in Q4, for about $1.79 trillion in late‑2023 net issuance, still reasonably described as “roughly $2 trillion.”(home.treasury.gov) Independent commentary at the time also highlighted persistently large U.S. fiscal deficits (around or above 6% of GDP) and growing interest costs, confirming the “large deficits” part of the premise.(barrons.com)

Outcome for the 10‑year yield: Official and market analyses show the 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield rose sharply through 2023, peaking at about 4.98% on October 19, 2023 according to a fund report summarizing Treasury data.(sec.gov) Major financial news outlets reported that around October 19–20, 2023, the 10‑year yield “notched above 5%” or “hit the 5% mark”—its first touch of that level since 2007—before closing just under 5%.(cnbc.com) That is within the 5–7% range Sacks specified. As of late 2025 the yield is back near 4%, but it did in fact move from roughly the low‑4s into the 5% area after the late‑2023 borrowing surge.(tradingeconomics.com)

Given that (1) the U.S. did continue running large deficits and issued roughly the volume of Treasuries he described in late 2023, and (2) the 10‑year yield subsequently rose into the lower end of his 5–7% target band, this prediction is best scored as right.