Evidence since 2023 matches the normalized prediction that, absent major consolidation, U.S. federal deficits would stay very large (≥≈$1T) and trend higher in nominal terms.

• Actual deficits: Treasury data show the federal deficit was about $1.70T in FY 2023, then rose to about $1.83T in FY 2024.(en.wikipedia.org) For FY 2025, the final Treasury figures put the deficit at roughly $1.8T, very close to 2024’s level and still larger than 2023 in nominal dollars.(americanactionforum.org) Thus, all post‑2023 deficits so far have remained well above $1T and, compared with 2023, are higher in absolute terms.

• Projected path: The Congressional Budget Office’s 2024 and 2025 outlooks project annual deficits staying in the ~$1.5–2.0T range in the 2020s and rising to about $2.5–2.6T by the mid‑2030s under current law, i.e., without major new deficit‑cutting policies.(crfb.org) These official baselines explicitly describe deficits as remaining historically large and growing over time.

• Net effect of policy changes: While there have been significant policy moves (e.g., new tariffs and large tax/spending packages), independent analyses of these measures still find continued large and rising deficits and debt, not a sustained move to sub‑$1T deficits.(politico.com)

There is a small one‑year dip from 2024 to 2025, but relative to 2023 and looking at the medium‑term trajectory, deficits have stayed far above $1T and are broadly on a rising nominal path, which is consistent with the normalized prediction rather than contradicting it.