The forecasted event was that the LK‑99 room‑temperature, ambient‑pressure superconductivity claim (or a very similar material’s claim) would be experimentally replicated to the satisfaction of the scientific community by the end of 2024.

By mid‑August 2023, replication efforts had already led to a consensus that LK‑99 is not a room‑temperature superconductor and is instead an insulator in pure form.(en.wikipedia.org) Subsequent theoretical and experimental work reinforced this conclusion, characterizing copper‑doped lead apatite (LK‑99) as a correlated, non‑superconducting material (e.g., a charge‑transfer Mott insulator) rather than a superconductor.(arxiv.org)

More broadly, as of late 2024 and even into 2025, mainstream reviews still state that no room‑temperature superconductor at ambient pressure has been accepted by the community; at standard atmospheric pressure, cuprate superconductors around 138 K remain the record‑holders, and room‑temperature superconductivity under ambient conditions is still described as hypothetical.(en.wikipedia.org) Attempts to introduce successor materials (e.g., PCPOSOS) likewise have not produced evidence judged convincing by the wider community and are reported as one‑sided claims lacking independent verification.(pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov)

Because no preprint’s claim of room‑temperature, ambient‑pressure superconductivity in LK‑99 or a closely related material was confirmed and accepted by the scientific community by 31 December 2024, the event whose probability Friedberg was assessing did not occur in the forecast window. Under a binary “did the predicted event happen?” scoring, this prediction resolves as wrong.