Friedberg argued that, given high debt levels, rising rates, and global bond repricing, additional inflationary pressure in the U.S. and other indebted Western economies was "inevitable" over the coming years. Since August 2023, however, inflation in these economies has generally moved down toward central-bank targets rather than re-accelerating.

In the U.S., headline CPI inflation averaged about 4.3% in 2023 and fell to 2.9% in 2024; as of September 2025 the annual rate is about 3.0%, with core inflation also easing—consistent with continued disinflation from the 9.1% peak in 2022, not a renewed surge. (jpmorgan.com) The euro area’s headline inflation has declined to around 2.3–2.4% in 2024–25, with ECB projections and surveys indicating inflation stabilizing near the 2% target over the medium term rather than drifting higher. (ecb.europa.eu) The UK, another highly indebted Western economy, has likewise seen inflation fall sharply from over 11% in 2022 to around the mid‑3% range in 2025, with both actual inflation and surveyed expectations trending downward even though inflation remains above the 2% target. (cambridgecurrencies.com)

Global assessments from the IMF similarly describe advanced‑economy inflation as on a declining path through 2024–26, with inflation projected to keep easing rather than showing an unavoidable new wave of price pressure. (meetings.imf.org) While inflation is not fully back at target everywhere and upside risks persist, the realized path since the prediction has been broadly disinflationary rather than one of "inevitable" additional inflationary pressure. On that basis, the prediction is best judged as wrong.