Friedberg @ 00:48:10Wrong
economymarkets
Prominent economists Friedberg cites predict that U.S. long‑term interest rates (e.g., 10–30 year Treasuries) will settle in the 5–7% range and remain in that range for many years, constituting a new long‑run interest rate regime.
there were two prominent economists who shared that they think we're going to be facing long term rates in the 5 to 7% range, very long term rates for a very long period of time that it is a new fiscal regime.View on YouTube
Explanation
10‑ and 30‑year Treasury yields did not move into, or "settle" in, a sustained 5–7% range after the August 2023 podcast.
- Realized 10‑year yields: FRED data show the monthly average 10‑year constant‑maturity yield from August 2023 through October 2025 ranged roughly 3.9–4.8%, peaking around 4.8% in October 2023, and then running mostly in the low‑to‑mid‑4s through 2024–2025, never averaging at or above 5%. (fred.stlouisfed.org) Recent weekly data put the 10‑year around 4.1% in late November 2025. (fred.stlouisfed.org)
- Realized 30‑year yields: The 30‑year constant‑maturity yield averaged about 3.7–4.95% monthly from August 2023 through October 2025, with the high point ~4.95% in October 2023 and values in 2025 generally between 4.6–4.9%. (fred.stlouisfed.org) Daily data show occasional spikes above 5% (e.g., a move to about 5.09% in May 2025) but these were short‑lived, not a stable regime. (barrons.com) As of late November 2025, 20‑ and 30‑year yields are around 4.6–4.7%, i.e., below 5%. (federalreserve.gov)
- Expectations for coming years: Consensus forecasts and model‑based projections as of late 2025 see the 10‑year yield hovering near 4–4.2% over the next year and the 20‑ to 30‑year segment in the mid‑4s, not 5–7%. (reuters.com)
Even allowing that “for a very long period of time” is somewhat vague, the prediction was specifically about a new long‑run regime with long‑term Treasury rates in the 5–7% range. Two-plus years later, both realized data and forward‑looking market and analyst expectations cluster well below 5%, with only brief, temporary forays near or slightly above 5%. That pattern is inconsistent with rates having settled into a persistent 5–7% regime, so this prediction is best judged wrong as of November 30, 2025.